Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, will all be possible. ...Summary... A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a focus for renewed convective development behind one or more complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...East TX into the upper MS Valley... With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO. With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat. Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection limiting the extent of the warm sector. Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR, redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast, low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments. Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through the overnight hours. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic... A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front. Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a few stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 Read more

MD 0539 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 144... FOR NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...AND SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...western/northern OK...and southeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 144... Valid 271557Z - 271730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will further increase into the afternoon from parts of northwest Texas into southeast Kansas, including potential for a couple strong tornadic supercells. A broader tornado and/or multiple PDS/non-PDS tornado watches will be needed prior to the 18Z expiration of WW 144. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis placed the nearly stationary dryline across the eastern TX Panhandle through northwest TX. The deepest convection is ahead of the dryline in west-central to north-central OK, which includes a supercell in cluster and a downstream discrete supercell. Surface warming has been more pronounced in parts of central OK, generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. The leading discrete supercell should have relatively uninterrupted inflow as it impinges on this relatively max in boundary-layer warming. Amid a 45-kt southerly low-level jet per the TLX VWP data, potential will exist for cyclic tornadoes that may be strong. Strong mid-level rotation has also been noted with the supercell in cluster now centered in Dewey County, OK, and this storm should pose a continued threat for all hazards. Additional storms should regenerate along the dryline farther south into northwest TX through the afternoon given minimal MLCIN. With weaker forcing for ascent relative to farther north, there is some uncertainty in how quickly this activity will become severe. But the overall environment will favor discrete supercell development, especially as the boundary layer further warms. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33330075 34760019 36239913 37569737 37849665 37869596 37679565 36989571 36459599 35939681 35109788 33589913 33140025 33330075 Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0145 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0145 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0145 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129- 141-149-151-153-271740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC075-087-101-155-191-197-345-483-487-271740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE FOARD HALL HARDEMAN MOTLEY WHEELER WILBARGER Read more

WW 144 TORNADO OK TX 271125Z - 271800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across northwest Texas, and these storms will spread northeastward across western Oklahoma through the morning. Despite the time of day, the environment will favor supercell clusters capable of producing a few tornadoes, very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Childress TX to 20 miles northeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more