Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OK...NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST KS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph are all possible. ...A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat... ...OK/KS/north TX through tonight... A pronounced midlevel trough over the Four Corners will move eastward today and then begin to eject northeastward tonight over the central/southern High Plains. This synoptic pattern will maintain a lee cyclone in southeast CO and a dryline arcing southeastward and then southward close to the western OK border. Farther north, a stalling baroclinic zone will move slowly northward into northern KS today and central IA by this evening. A broad, unstable warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support multiple rounds of severe/tornadic storms through the period, both along the synoptic boundaries and in parts of the open warm sector for OK/KS. The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress as an embedded jet streak (evident as the fast-moving cloud streak over west TX) begins to interact with the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture. Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday. An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS. A moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and lengthening/enlarging hodographs with time (as a mass response to the approaching shortwave trough) will become more favorable for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes. The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells. The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK. Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west. The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds. ...East central CO/far western KS this afternoon/evening... Near the lee cyclone and a stalled front, thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon in a small cluster/arc across east central CO. Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the 40s, cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to surface-based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Relatively large, curved hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and large hail, as well as damaging gusts once any upscale growth into a line segment occurs. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone will move northeastward today from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes. The stronger forcing for ascent has already moved northeast of the surface warm sector, so storm development in this corridor will likely be later this afternoon/evening in association with low-level ascent along the stalling front across WI/lower MI. A band of storms is expected along the front, and other convection could eventually spread into northern IL from eastern IA. Forecast profiles along and south of the front show sufficient hodograph length/deep-layer shear for organized line segments and some embedded supercells capable of producing damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Isolated large hail will also be possible, given some potential for embedded supercells within the northeast extent of the 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson/Hart.. 04/27/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Great Plains today through tonight... * LOCATIONS... Oklahoma North Texas Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northwest TX into western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271029Z - 271200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development is possible toward sunrise. Large hail will be possible initially, but the tornado threat will increase through the morning. Watch issuance is likely prior to 7 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture is streaming into parts of the TX South Plains and northwest TX this morning, in response to a strong southerly low-level jet noted on regional VWPs. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet are approaching the southern Rockies. A cirrus plume now moving over far west TX may be indicative of increasing ascent in advance of the shortwave. As this ascent begins to impinge on returning moisture across northwest TX, thunderstorm development is expected near or just before sunrise, with increasing storm coverage expected with time into parts of western OK. Initial storm development will likely be somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong effective shear will support supercell potential with an initial threat of large hail (potentially in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range). As storms spread into western OK, a transition to surface-based convection will be possible later this morning, as MLCINH quickly erodes with even modest diurnal heating. A transition to one or more clusters is possible as storm coverage increases with time this morning, but increasingly favorable low-level moisture and wind profiles will support embedded supercells with an increasing tornado threat. Watch issuance is likely prior to 7 AM CDT. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34029986 33970016 33960083 34230093 35110009 36019945 36869914 36939846 36549794 36019782 35349799 34419848 34029986 Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0144 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0144 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 27 11:10:02 UTC 2024.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more