Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. ..Hart/Jewell.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with some trimming of the fire weather highlights made where clouds and/or low-level moisture is expected to persist through the day. Clear skies are present behind the dryline, which is currently located over the eastern Texas Panhandle. RH is already dropping into the 15-25 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. With further daytime heating, surface RH should drop into the 10-20 percent range as westerly sustained surface winds approach 20+ mph, warranting the continuation of Critical highlights over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the western trough today, with strong lee cyclogenesis resulting across the High Plains. Strengthening flow amid very dry conditions will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High Plains into the central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A deeply mixed air mass is expected to be in be in place by this afternoon across portions of eastern New Mexico into and eastward into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. In these regions, sustained surface winds 20-30 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 5-10 percent. The Critical area was expanded further into southwestern Kansas, given recent trends. While some spotty Extremely Critical conditions are possible, fuels do not yet support inclusion of an Extremely Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more