Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN MISSOURI ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more