Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-045-047-049- 053-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-097-105-111-113-115-117-127-131- 139-143-145-149-151-155-159-161-167-169-173-177-185-191-197-201- 272040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS EDWARDS ELK ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE STAFFORD SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-045-047-049- 053-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-097-105-111-113-115-117-127-131- 139-143-145-149-151-155-159-161-167-169-173-177-185-191-197-201- 272040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS EDWARDS ELK ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE STAFFORD SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Central to northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 271633Z - 271830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop during the early to mid-afternoon along the surface front across central to northeast Kansas. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed a quasi-stationary front across central to northeast KS. A swelling CU field with embedded small CBs have initiated along the portion of the front just north of SLN to MHK. With minimal warm-sector MLCIN amid 65-66 F surface dew points, convective development will increase into early afternoon. Primary uncertainty is the degree of sustained convective coverage. With the deep-layer shear vector oriented roughly parallel to the front, a cluster-type mode may eventually dominate. But given that large-scale ascent is relatively weak through the afternoon, it's plausible that a more discrete supercell mode could be maintained for several hours. With 40-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level flow per the ICT VWP data, all severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for a strong tornado or two later this afternoon. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 39309733 39919582 40109521 39769481 39069508 38379640 38009822 38219871 38599887 39309733 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight modifications made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more