Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The most numerous/intense storms are expected from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-80 mph are all possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track for a regional outbreak of severe storms with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms have initiated within the warm sector ahead of the dryline over central KS and much of OK. Numerous supercells are present, but storm organization has been slow thus far. As the boundary-layer slowly deepens from strong southerly warm air advection and muted diurnal heating, an increasingly strong low-level jet will gradually expand low-level hodographs. Multiple rounds of convection appear likely through tonight as the main trough is still forecast to overspread the southern Plains from 21-06z. While some uncertainty about storm mode and interactions limits predictability for higher tornado probs, the environment remains favorable for strong and potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail with the more discrete supercells into tonight. ...Northern KS and southern NE into MO and IA... The cold front/effective boundary has trended farther south than the most recent guidance. Additional storm development to the south should further reinforce this boundary through the day. Hail and a few tornadoes appear likely with supercells along the warm side of the front. Have adjusted the ENH southward to better account for ongoing storms. Farther east, clear skies and strong low-level moisture advection have allowed for substantial destabilization over parts of northern MO and southern IA. South of the effective front, additional storm development into lines and clusters appears likely into the afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely. ..Lyons.. 04/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/ ...A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon and evening across parts of KS/OK. Very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible.. ...OK/northwest TX/south-central KS... Water vapor imagery shows the main upper trough is still back over southern AZ, with a rapidly ejecting mid/upper level jet streak nosing into OK/TX. This lead feature has aided in the development of severe storms this morning over parts of west TX/OK. Storms will develop northeastward through the afternoon into central KS, despite an expansive anvil shield from the morning convection. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. Farther south, the air mass across much of central/western OK and northwest TX continues to warm/destabilize as temperatures rise through the mid/upper 70s - eliminating CINH. Only weak upper forcing through the afternoon will result in chaotic development of discrete supercells in a very strongly sheared and very unstable environment. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and strong/increasing shear profiles through the day. Details of timing and location are nebulous, but those storms that develop will pose a risk of very large hail and strong and possibly long-track tornadoes. The stronger large-scale forcing will arrive around/after dark, with a greater eastward surge of storms across central OK expected. This activity may organize upscale in bowing segments will an increasing risk of damaging winds along with hail and tornadoes into southeast KS and northeast OK tonight. ...Southeast CO into northern KS... A rather strong surface boundary extends from southeast CO across much of northern KS. Relatively strong heating along this boundary and moderate instability will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon along the entire corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and favorable low-level wind profiles in vicinity of the boundary will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to build eastward this evening along the same boundary into parts of southern IA/northern MO, with a continued risk of large hail along with an increasing threat of damaging winds. Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0541 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 146... FOR NORTHWEST TX TO NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX to north-central OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 146... Valid 271813Z - 271945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 146 continues. SUMMARY...Near-term severe threat appears bimodal with discrete supercells from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma, and separately in north-central Oklahoma with supercells embedded within a slow-moving cluster. DISCUSSION...A trio of discrete supercells are ongoing across a part of northwest TX into far southwest OK, just ahead of the pronounced dryline. The relatively most favorable thermodynamic environment is just ahead of these cells. Large hail will be the primary initial threat, but as supercells mature, the tornado threat should correspondingly increase amid 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 per FDR VWP data. Long-lived cluster with embedded supercell structures has gradually progressed northeastward over northwest into north-central OK. This has left a substantial cold pool in its wake with surface temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, minimizing the severe threat to its northwest in the near-term. Given the cluster aligning nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector, the primary severe threat will likely be confined along the immediate leading edge of this cluster within small-scale bowing structures approaching the I-35 corridor. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33490031 34609970 35809921 36369852 36919814 36879703 36529679 35539765 34439786 32939939 32650001 32950044 33490031 Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0541 AND 0543. ..GRAMS..04/27/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055- 057-065-067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-119-129-137-141-149- 151-153-272040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-272040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the Plains. Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more