Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 28 22:46:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 159 TORNADO AR MO OK 282215Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify into the early evening across eastern Oklahoma and eventually spread into southwest Missouri and western Arkansas later this evening. A few supercells are possible as storms mature this evening. Low-level shear and moist conditions in the low levels will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms. Large hail and damaging gusts are also possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Monett MO to 50 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Smith Read more

MD 0562 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO.
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern OK...western Arkansas and into far southeast KS and southwest MO. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282038Z - 282245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Weak showers may gradually deepen into clusters of strong to severe storms late this afternoon. Uncertainty remains high as it is unclear if the air mass can recover in the wake of earlier storms. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite data showed a few showers slowly deepening over parts of central and eastern OK and northeast TX. In the wake of the early day MCS lingering clouds have slowed diurnal heating with temperatures stubbornly remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Still, some clearing has emerged and 1.25-1.4 in precipitable water values show sufficient moisture for deep convection. Hi-res guidance shows these showers may gradually deepen into several clusters of thunderstorms across eastern OK over the next couple of hours as a subtle upper-level trough moves in from the west. With 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE potential available by 22-23z, a few stronger updrafts could emerge. 35-45 kt of effective shear would favor storm organization, though in the form of a mix of cellular and cluster elements. Damaging gusts and isolated hail appear to be the most likely threats should more robust storms develop. Still, a 30-40 kt LLJ should enlarge low-level hodographs near sunset to support the risk for a tornado or two. The primary uncertainty for this afternoon and evening is the coverage and intensity of storms that develop. While it remains unclear now, conditions are being monitored for a possible watch. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33509512 33829634 34159670 34809659 35959618 37379548 37639464 37599391 37259363 36909353 36269355 35059382 33799406 33509512 Read more

MD 0563 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 158... FOR A PART OF EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...a part of east-central TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 158... Valid 282047Z - 282145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...A few supercells should continue to pose a primary threat of tornadoes across a part of east-central Texas into early evening. DISCUSSION...The two initially sustained supercells in east-central TX both produced reportedly brief tornadoes earlier this hour. A third supercell is trying to intensify upshear of the middle one (in Robertson County), but appears displaced northwest of convective outflow from the lead storms. It is plausible that the middle of the trio will become the more dominant/longer-lasting of the supercells given its more east-northeastward movement and broader access to uninterrupted inflow emanating northward from southeast TX. While low-level shear is more modest with southwest extent, it will remain adequate for multiple tornadogenesis cycles into early evening. ..Grams.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31849593 32059526 31929488 31639483 31119532 30449662 30469712 30799725 30879724 31849593 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Mostly zonal mid-level flow will be present across the western CONUS at the beginning of the period. Flow will start to amplify on Wednesday and Thursday as a mid-level jet streak moves into the Inter Mountain West. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected which will make dry and breezy conditions likely across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday a broad trough is expected in the western CONUS but stronger mid-level flow and breezier conditions are not anticipated near dry fuels across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D4/Wed - D5/Thu - Southwest and the Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday in response to the developing lee cyclone, with additional support from the increasing mid-level flow over a deeply mixed airmass. Single digit relative humidity is possible. In addition, most of this area has seen little to no precipitation over the past 2 weeks with additional drying expected early this week. Therefore, Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more