Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of south Texas northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...South Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... At the start of the period, a linear MCS will be ongoing from the southeast Texas Coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The strongest part of the MCS is expected to be in southern Louisiana during the first three hours of the period, from 12Z to 15Z. The wind-damage threat is expected to remain isolated as it moves southeastward across the Louisiana Coast this morning. A marginal wind-damage threat is also expected further northeast into south-central Mississippi from this morning into early afternoon. However, instability should remain very weak, limiting the severe threat potential. Further southwest into south Texas, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Rio Grande River eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Along the northern edge of this moist airmass, isolated storms may develop this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear should be enough to support a marginal severe threat. However, any threat should be very isolated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/29/2024 Read more