Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 7R4 TO 50 E LFT. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 162 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 29/14Z. ..KERR..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-101-291400- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA ST. MARY GMZ435-436-452-455-291400- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 162 SEVERE TSTM LA MS TX CW 290655Z - 291400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central and southwest Louisiana Extreme southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 155 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A large convective cluster will continue to develop slowly southeastward through the early morning hours across southeast Texas and southwest/south central Louisiana. Embedded bowing segments will pose the threat for occasional damaging winds up to 65 mph, and the stronger embedded cells could produce isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may also occur with circulations embedded in the larger band of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles east of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30015. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight. This wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico. Outflow with this convection will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the eastern flank of the MCS today. Surface heating in cloud breaks, lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS. Vertical shear will not be particularly strong, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated downburst wind damage through this afternoon. Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy. Thunderstorm development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and the midlevel trough approaching from OK. However, severe storms are not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ...South TX this afternoon... A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon, providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large hail/wind damage if storms do form. ...Lower MI this afternoon... A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through tonight. Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/ destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into western Lower MI. MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind damage this afternoon. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight. This wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico. Outflow with this convection will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the eastern flank of the MCS today. Surface heating in cloud breaks, lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS. Vertical shear will not be particularly strong, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated downburst wind damage through this afternoon. Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy. Thunderstorm development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and the midlevel trough approaching from OK. However, severe storms are not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ...South TX this afternoon... A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon, providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large hail/wind damage if storms do form. ...Lower MI this afternoon... A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through tonight. Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/ destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into western Lower MI. MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind damage this afternoon. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight. This wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico. Outflow with this convection will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the eastern flank of the MCS today. Surface heating in cloud breaks, lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS. Vertical shear will not be particularly strong, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated downburst wind damage through this afternoon. Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy. Thunderstorm development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and the midlevel trough approaching from OK. However, severe storms are not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ...South TX this afternoon... A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon, providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large hail/wind damage if storms do form. ...Lower MI this afternoon... A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through tonight. Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/ destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into western Lower MI. MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind damage this afternoon. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight. This wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico. Outflow with this convection will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the eastern flank of the MCS today. Surface heating in cloud breaks, lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS. Vertical shear will not be particularly strong, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated downburst wind damage through this afternoon. Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy. Thunderstorm development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and the midlevel trough approaching from OK. However, severe storms are not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ...South TX this afternoon... A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon, providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large hail/wind damage if storms do form. ...Lower MI this afternoon... A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through tonight. Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/ destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into western Lower MI. MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind damage this afternoon. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight. This wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico. Outflow with this convection will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the eastern flank of the MCS today. Surface heating in cloud breaks, lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS. Vertical shear will not be particularly strong, but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated downburst wind damage through this afternoon. Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy. Thunderstorm development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and the midlevel trough approaching from OK. However, severe storms are not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ...South TX this afternoon... A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon, providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large hail/wind damage if storms do form. ...Lower MI this afternoon... A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through tonight. Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/ destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into western Lower MI. MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind damage this afternoon. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024 Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LCH TO 5 SSW 7R4 TO 50 ENE LFT TO 35 SSW MCB. ..LEITMAN..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-045-047-099-101-121-291340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY WEST BATON ROUGE GMZ435-436-452-455-291340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS TO 20 SSE LCH TO 30 WNW 7R4 TO 10 WNW LFT TO 45 NNE LFT TO 30 SSE HEZ. ..LEITMAN..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC023-033-037-045-047-055-077-099-101-113-121-125-291240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE LAFAYETTE POINTE COUPEE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-157-291240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE WILKINSON GMZ432-435-436-450-452-455-291240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE HOU TO 20 W LCH TO 25 ENE LCH TO 35 NNW LFT TO 30 SSW HEZ. ..LEITMAN..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-033-037-045-047-053-055-077-097-099-101-113-121-125- 291140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE POINTE COUPEE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-157-291140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE WILKINSON TXC071-245-291140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0571 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Areas affected...far southeast TX into southwest LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162... Valid 290911Z - 291045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind risk will increase across far southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana over the next 1-2 hours. A tornado also may be possible with this activity. DISCUSSION...Some increase in intensity has been noted in radar imagery over southeast TX into southwest LA in the last 30 minutes or so. Reflectivity cores have deepened/intensified on 7 km CAPPI and some increase in velocity signatures are also noted. Convection will continue to move into an uncapped airmass close to the coast characterized by SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Furthermore, increasing low-level rotation has been noted in cells over southeast TX ahead of the convective line. Tornado potential may be somewhat increased as these more cellular elements merge with the line in the near term. HGX and LCH VWP data show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation and a brief tornado or two may occur in addition to damaging gusts associated with the southeastward surging bow into southwest LA. ..Leitman.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30339468 30479402 30719319 30819228 30559200 29889211 29639282 29489358 29589452 29779484 30059487 30339468 Read more