Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread across the Northern Rockies from an upper-low across the northwestern US on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage will bring widespread wetting rainfall across much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Behind the cold front, a dry continental air mass will overspread this region, with relative humidity dropping as low as 15 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph. Fuels in this region are expected to be marginal before additional rainfall. However, some potential for drying of grasses and fine fuels may support localized fire weather concerns. For now, this potential is too low to include any areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread across the Northern Rockies from an upper-low across the northwestern US on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage will bring widespread wetting rainfall across much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Behind the cold front, a dry continental air mass will overspread this region, with relative humidity dropping as low as 15 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph. Fuels in this region are expected to be marginal before additional rainfall. However, some potential for drying of grasses and fine fuels may support localized fire weather concerns. For now, this potential is too low to include any areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread across the Northern Rockies from an upper-low across the northwestern US on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage will bring widespread wetting rainfall across much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Behind the cold front, a dry continental air mass will overspread this region, with relative humidity dropping as low as 15 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph. Fuels in this region are expected to be marginal before additional rainfall. However, some potential for drying of grasses and fine fuels may support localized fire weather concerns. For now, this potential is too low to include any areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread across the Northern Rockies from an upper-low across the northwestern US on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage will bring widespread wetting rainfall across much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Behind the cold front, a dry continental air mass will overspread this region, with relative humidity dropping as low as 15 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph. Fuels in this region are expected to be marginal before additional rainfall. However, some potential for drying of grasses and fine fuels may support localized fire weather concerns. For now, this potential is too low to include any areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread across the Northern Rockies from an upper-low across the northwestern US on Tuesday. A cold frontal passage will bring widespread wetting rainfall across much of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Behind the cold front, a dry continental air mass will overspread this region, with relative humidity dropping as low as 15 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph. Fuels in this region are expected to be marginal before additional rainfall. However, some potential for drying of grasses and fine fuels may support localized fire weather concerns. For now, this potential is too low to include any areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS today. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OZARKS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Ozarks region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290447Z - 290645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...there is a low risk of a brief tornado, and/or gusty winds, with convection early this morning. DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across MO late this evening. This feature appears largely responsible for MCS that is propagating across central MO. Southwestern flank of this complex trails across the MO Ozarks into northwest AR. Isolated supercells are embedded along this flanking convection where weak buoyancy has yet to be overturned. Forecast soundings for this region suggest parcels may be slightly elevated, but strongly sheared. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, at this time it appears the weak instability will limit the severe potential as the MCS propagates downstream. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37249226 37569104 36849062 36329197 36479284 37249226 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat is expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, with a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into parts of the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the central Plains. A surface wave is forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley, with a separate low expected to largely remain in place across the southern High Plains. ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains... An active severe weather day appears possible from eastern NE/southeast SD into western IA/southwest MN, though uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return and primary storm mode. Modest low-level moisture will stream northward through the day from the southern Plains into the central Plains and upper MS Valley, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While the richest moisture will likely remain displaced southward of the shortwave track, 50s to near 60F dewpoints could spread as far north as eastern NE/western IA and southern MN by Tuesday afternoon. This moistening beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support diurnal destabilization, with peak MLCAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg across southern MN to greater than 1500 J/kg across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front by mid afternoon across northeast NE into southeast SD, with somewhat later initiation possible southward into southeast NE/northeast KS, as strong ascent overspreads the region. Quick evolution into supercells will be possible due to very favorable deep-layer shear, though some evolution toward a linear or cluster mode will be possible with time as storms move eastward. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of potentially very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Any notable upscale growth could also be accompanied by severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph), especially in areas where stronger heating occurs prior to storm arrival. Some tornado threat would also accompany any stronger supercells, though the magnitude of the tornado risk will be dependent on the quality of low-level moisture return, which remains uncertain at this time. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence increases regarding moisture and primary storm mode. More isolated development appears possible into the southern Plains, where a supercell or two could develop with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. ...Parts of PA into central NY... A weakening upper-level trough will move across parts of the OH Valley on Tuesday. While the surface pattern will be rather nebulous, modest low-level moisture will support at least weak diurnal destabilization. Modestly supportive deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms during the afternoon from parts of PA into central NY. No probabilities were added due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization, but some isolated severe threat could eventually evolve depending on trends regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture across the region. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more