Severe Storms

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW PRX TO 30 S RKR TO 5 SW SGF. ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-047-083-087-113-127-131-290240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN MOC209-290240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 159 TORNADO AR MO OK 282215Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify into the early evening across eastern Oklahoma and eventually spread into southwest Missouri and western Arkansas later this evening. A few supercells are possible as storms mature this evening. Low-level shear and moist conditions in the low levels will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms. Large hail and damaging gusts are also possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Monett MO to 50 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of wind damage, a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail are likely this evening across parts of east Texas, northern/central Louisiana and southern Arkansas. A few severe storms, associated with wind damage and hail will also be possible in a broader area from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley. ...Sabine River Valley/Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with southwesterly flow over the Ark-Latex and lower Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough, and an associated 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet, appear to be moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing near this shortwave trough, and to the east of the jet streak, from east Texas into far northwest Louisiana. This cluster is expected to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas, and into northern and western Louisiana this evening, where linear MCS development will be possible. The latest surface analysis shows the moist sector, with backed southeasterly flow, across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A mesolow is located in the Ark-La-Tex. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector are in the mid to upper 60s F, with the RAP/observed RAOBS estimating MLCAPE generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability will sustain a large cluster of storms, as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley this evening. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Polk and Shreveport, Louisiana have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a lot directional shear from the surface to 4 km above ground level. This will continue to be favorable for a severe bowing line segment for several more hours this evening. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line. If a cold pool can become organized, then the wind damage threat could become more widespread. The Fort Polk, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat will exist with the line, and with the more intense cells further to the southwest. The more intense semi-discrete storms in east Texas should be supercellular, having a large hail and isolated tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue for several more hours, but should become marginal in the late evening and overnight period. A severe threat will also be possible further to the north into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, but should be isolated due to the airmass largely being overturned. Further to the north and west into central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central Texas, RAP analysis show moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE generally from the 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the observed sounding at Oklahoma City, and forecast soundings further to the east have 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 45 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. Large-scale subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough should keep any severe threat marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 04/29/2024 Read more

MD 0565 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 159... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwestern Arkansas...and Southwestern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 159... Valid 282350Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 159 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues in WW159. Corridor of more favorable surface winds may support risk of a tornado. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations indicate winds across northwestern Arkansas into southwestern Missouri are backing as convection approaches from the south and west. This southeasterly component has not handled well by recent RAP analysis data, which may indicate low-level shear is more favorable across this corridor than indicated in recent guidance. The VAD profile from KSRX (Fort Smith WSR-88D) shows around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. This area may be a focused zone of potential for a tornado in the short term. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35799375 35519434 35489468 35479497 35509544 35619566 35859568 36089554 36249541 36569509 36789472 36899431 36909392 36839371 36579365 36309362 36089367 35799375 Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 159 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565 ..THORNTON..04/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 159 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-083-087-113-127-131-143-290140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN LOGAN MADISON POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-119-145-209-290140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON STONE OKC001-005-021-029-041-061-063-077-079-091-097-101-111-115-121- 127-135-145-290140- OK Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0158 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 158 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 158 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-145-149-161-177-183- 185-187-203-213-225-255-285-287-289-293-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-403-405-419-423-455-471-473-477-493-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GREGG GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES LAVACA LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more