Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas. ...East TX/LA/Southern AR... A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. ...OK/AR/MO... The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024 Read more