Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST AR AND EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...northwest AR and eastern OK into north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280532Z - 280700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A QLCS will continue to gradually shift east with time overnight. A new watch or two will likely be needed in the next hour for parts of northwest Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS extending from northeast OK into central TX is gradually shifting east, though individual convective elements within the line are moving more northeast. Most discrete supercells ahead of the line earlier this evening have now merged with the QLCS, though some potential still exists for an isolated pre-QLCS supercell to develop from far north TX into southeast OK. A strong southerly low-level jet is contributing to enlarged, curved hodographs and 0-1 km SRH around 200-400 m2/s2. This should continue to support rotation/mesovortex development and tornado potential the next several hours. Damaging wind to 70 mph also will be possible in additional to tornado potential. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 36489347 35049415 33279539 32339638 31979720 31809834 31969896 33059792 34489579 36499457 36489347 Read more

MD 0556 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... FOR TX BIG COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153... Valid 280421Z - 280615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153 continues. SUMMARY...Broken squall line will advance east with an attendant risk for wind/hail. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery clearly depicts large-scale ascent spreading across the southern high Plains late this evening. Robust, deep convection has evolved along the dryline south of I-20 into the Edwards Plateau. A broken squall line, with embedded supercells, will propagate east into a region characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear more than strong enough to maintain organized updrafts. Latest radar data suggests large hail is likely with the strongest updrafts, and strong winds can be expected, especially with bowing segments. This activity will progress steadily east across the remainder of the watch into the pre-dawn hours. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29780250 32700149 32689943 29790052 29780250 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more