Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Parts of the southern Plains... A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained for this regime. There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this regime. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the development of adequate instability remains too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected along the stronger parts of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes could occur from southwest Arkansas into east Texas. A more isolated severe threat is expected today over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A large linear MCS will move eastward across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex early in the period. The line is expected to become unorganized after daybreak and dissipate by late morning. A moist and unstable airmass is likely to remain mostly undisturbed across much of east Texas and Louisiana. This airmass is forecast to advect northward across the Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. On the large-scale, a negatively tilted mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains today. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will reform along the western edge of the warm sector by mid-afternoon. The convection is expected to organize into a line, producing wind damage and hail, moving eastward across the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The greatest severe threat will likely be along the southern half of the line, from southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma south-southwestward into east Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Monday across far southwest Arkansas and in northeast Texas have MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear generally from 35 to 45 knots. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This environment will be favorable for tornadoes with embedded supercells, and with rotating elements near the leading edge of the line. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex and in east Texas, where instability is expected to be greatest. Hailstones greater than two inches in diameter could occur near the southern end of the line, if a couple supercells can remain semi-discrete. The more intense bowing segments will likely be accompanied by wind damage. Although a substantial severe threat is expected as far south as southeast Texas, there could be a gap in the line across part of east Texas where the severe threat is locally minimized. On the northern end of the line in the Ozarks, the magnitude of the severe threat will be conditional upon destabilization in the wake of the morning MCS. The severe threat associated with the line should persist into the late evening as the new MCS approaches the Mississippi River. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of Missouri northward into southern Iowa. As surface heating takes place today, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the moist sector from east-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The storms will move eastward into Missouri and southern Iowa during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Kansas City by 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 60 knots. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon. The primary hazards should be wind damage and hail. As convective coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, a line is expected to organize. Wind damage should become the primary threat as it approaches the Mississippi River during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/28/2024 Read more

WW 0157 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0157 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-280640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-015-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119-145- 161-167-169-185-209-213-217-225-229-280640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-280640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-015-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119-145- 161-167-169-185-209-213-217-225-229-280640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more