Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 28 18:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms likely near the Sabine Valley. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts associated with high-based convection over parts of MT. ...TX into LA... An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging winds will be possible with this system given the expected high degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind probabilities at this time. Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms. ...Central and eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT. Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of enhancing wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2024 Read more