Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...01z Outlook... Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account for this activity spreading east of the River. Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front that is surging southeast across south-central NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with this squall line. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...01z Outlook... Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account for this activity spreading east of the River. Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front that is surging southeast across south-central NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with this squall line. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...01z Outlook... Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account for this activity spreading east of the River. Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front that is surging southeast across south-central NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with this squall line. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...01z Outlook... Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account for this activity spreading east of the River. Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front that is surging southeast across south-central NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with this squall line. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024 Read more

MD 0618 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas...far southeastern Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180... Valid 032313Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and severe/damaging gusts continues. A brief window for a tornado risk will exist for discrete storms between 00-03Z. DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of storms continue within WW 180. Visible satellite shows some modestly agitated cumulus ahead of this activity and west of modifying outflow from yesterdays convection. While overall deep layer ascent remains weak as the primary trough is passing by to the north, an increase in the low-level jet is expected this evening. As this occurs, additional storms may form. 40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should continue to promote some threat for large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential would likely increase as storm coverage/cold pool interactions increase. The tornado risk should largely be mitigated by an unfavorable storm mode. However, discrete storms would have some potential to produce a tornado, particularly within the 00-03Z time window. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36010227 36170304 36440339 36810343 37680248 38520250 38910232 39130043 38869978 37699975 36780000 36360021 36030085 35960216 36010227 Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DHT TO 20 NNE CAO TO 5 WSW LHX. ..WENDT..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-099-040140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS KSC055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-129-135- 171-175-187-189-195-199-203-040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MAF TO 60 NE BGS TO 35 ESE PVW. ..GOSS..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-049-059-081-083-095-125-151-207-235-253-263-307-353-399- 417-431-433-441-451-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO DICKENS FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KENT MCCULLOCH NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AKO TO 25 SSW IML TO 30 E IML TO 30 NNE LBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621 ..WENDT..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-040140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS NEC001-019-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-073-079-081-083-085-087- 093-099-111-121-129-137-145-163-181-040140- NE Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE 6R6 TO 55 E FST TO 45 WSW SJT TO 30 NNW SJT. ..GOSS..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC105-137-267-271-319-323-327-413-435-465-040140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROCKETT EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MASON MAVERICK MENARD SCHLEICHER SUTTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... FOR THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...the Transpecos region of western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179... Valid 032327Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue to pose a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts over portions of the Transpecos region of western Texas. DISCUSSION...Modest low-level moisture is indicated across parts of the Transpecos region east of the dryline, which is supporting 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. This has been sufficient -- in tandem with the veering winds with height/ample shear across this region -- to support development of isolated supercell storms roughly along the Pecos Valley area. The two most prominent storms -- one in eastern Pecos County and the other near the Terrell/Crockett County line -- continue to exhibit radar indications of very large hail production. Locally damaging wind gusts are also possible with these storms, given the relatively deep mixed layer. Storms will likely continue over the next couple of hours, with potential for additional/isolated updraft development. ..Goss.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29890213 30700250 31540239 31650123 30680070 29220026 28750043 29190094 29890213 Read more

MD 0618 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas...far southeastern Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180... Valid 032313Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and severe/damaging gusts continues. A brief window for a tornado risk will exist for discrete storms between 00-03Z. DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of storms continue within WW 180. Visible satellite shows some modestly agitated cumulus ahead of this activity and west of modifying outflow from yesterdays convection. While overall deep layer ascent remains weak as the primary trough is passing by to the north, an increase in the low-level jet is expected this evening. As this occurs, additional storms may form. 40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should continue to promote some threat for large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential would likely increase as storm coverage/cold pool interactions increase. The tornado risk should largely be mitigated by an unfavorable storm mode. However, discrete storms would have some potential to produce a tornado, particularly within the 00-03Z time window. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36010227 36170304 36440339 36810343 37680248 38520250 38910232 39130043 38869978 37699975 36780000 36360021 36030085 35960216 36010227 Read more

MD 0617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 0617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Western and central Nebraska/Kansas border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032231Z - 040000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible as storms continue south-southeastward near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Though low, a tornado could also occur with stronger, discrete storms. A watch is possible within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Surface moisture continues to return into southern Nebraska. Convection in the vicinity of North Platte has deepened over the last 30 minutes as result. With an expected increase in low-level southerly winds over the next few hours, low 50s F dewpoints will likely push into southern Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Convection that can mature will likely be sustained by the low-level jet. Large hail and damaging winds will likely be the primary threats. Surface dewpoint depressions are enough that the tornado threat should remain low. However, low-level hodograph curvature will increase this evening and discrete storms near the theta-e gradient will pose some tornado risk. A watch is possible within the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40820211 41210153 40869836 40299745 39699771 39209888 39100085 39320174 40050249 40820211 Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618 ..WENDT..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-099-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS KSC055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-129-135- 171-175-187-189-195-199-203-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 180 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 032100Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Northern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few bands of intensifying thunderstorms will gradually move east across the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Upscale growth into a squall line is forecast later this evening over southwest Kansas with severe gusts becoming the primary severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north northwest of Garden City KS to 50 miles southwest of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Smith Read more

MD 0616 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 178... FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE CONCHO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...west-central Texas...from the South Plains to the Concho Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 178... Valid 032152Z - 032315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 178 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across Tornado Watch 178, including a very intense/strongly rotating supercell moving southeastward across Coke County north of San Angelo. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated storms extending from north of Lubbock southeastward to near San Angelo. Given the very favorable thermodynamic environment (2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) across the area, and low-level southeasterlies veering to west-southwesterly at mid levels, risk for very large hail, locally damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes continues. One storm in particular appears strongly tornadic at this time per radar observations. In addition to an extremely well-defined hook with an eye-like area of lesser reflectivity apparent, the latest storm-relative velocity data from the KSJT WSR-88D shows rotational velocity in excess of 90kt -- coincident with the "reflectivity eye" within the hook, would suggest the possibility of an ongoing significant tornado. While this storm is currently moving southeastward across relatively sparsely populated areas, continued southeastward motion could allow the storm to approach areas near and east of the San Angelo area in the next hour. With that said, a recent turn to a more east-southeastward motion has been observed in the past couple of volume scans. ..Goss.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32000104 34620199 34780180 32209994 31689983 31400012 31450056 32000104 Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 181 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 032250Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northern Kansas Southwest and Central Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Bands of storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through early/mid-evening, initially across southwest Nebraska and far northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas. Damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Burlington CO to 30 miles east southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179...WW 180... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-099-032340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS KSC055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-129-135- 171-175-187-189-195-199-203-032340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NMC059-032340- Read more

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