Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley, and separately over portions of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A pronounced/deep closed upper low over CA/NV will move eastward over the western states on Sunday, eventually transitioning into an open wave as it overspreads the northern/central Rockies by early Monday morning. A weak southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley through the day. Another upper trough over Ontario is expected to advance into Quebec, with the southern portion of this feature glancing the lower Great Lakes and vicinity. Surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across the northern High Plains ahead of the western CONUS upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward across the southern/central Plains through the period, although convection over TX may temporarily slow this process. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple thunderstorm clusters will probably be ongoing across parts of west into central TX at the start of the period Sunday morning. An isolated threat for damaging winds and hail may persist with this activity as it spreads eastward towards the middle/upper TX Coast through early Sunday afternoon. A gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity may occur as modest destabilization occurs ahead of ongoing thunderstorms. Strong deep-layer shear should support continued convective organization, with small bowing clusters possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley as a weak shortwave trough moves across these regions through Sunday afternoon. However, effective bulk shear should remain weaker over these areas. Based on the likelihood and probable placement of morning convection across central TX, have expanded the Marginal Risk a bit southward/eastward, while also trimming much of north TX and south-central OK out of severe probabilities. ...Ohio into Western Pennsylvania... Modest destabilization should occur ahead of a weak front advancing east-southeastward across the OH Valley on Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop by Sunday afternoon along or just ahead of this boundary, as weak large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough over Ontario/Quebec overspreads this region. Deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt should support marginal updraft organization. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with any small clusters that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward across parts of OH into western PA and vicinity Sunday afternoon and early evening. This activity should gradually weaken through the evening across PA as it encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Northern High Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to remain very shallow/meager across the northern High Plains through the period. Even so, daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates may still support weak instability developing through Sunday afternoon along/east of the sharpening surface lee trough. While isolated high-based convection that develops across this region could produce locally strong/gusty winds, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A stronger trough will approach the Four Corners on Sunday. As this occurs, a deep surface low will develop in the northern Rockies/High Plains with a trough extending into the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Surface winds will increase through the day as the surface low/trough deepens. This, in combination with the approach of stronger mid-level winds during the afternoon, will promote elevated to critical fire weather from parts of eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common with some localized single digit values possible. Winds of 15-25 mph will also be possible--higher speeds being more likely in terrain-favored areas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be determined by how far west moisture pushes as well as where precipitation falls on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more