Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track, though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23 UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0178 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 3 18:21:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of west Texas from late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. Several storms may produce very large to giant hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will progress largely into northern Ontario, while a deep closed mid/upper low moves inland of the West Coast and reaches the CA/NV/OR border vicinity by early Sunday. A near 100-kt southern-stream upper jet will shift east from Baja/Gulf of CA across parts of northwest and north-central Mexico. At the surface, a weak cyclone over the Upper MS Valley will move northeast. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward and push southeastward, likely from the Ozark Plateau to west TX by Saturday afternoon. This boundary should stall for a time in the Permian Basin/South Plains vicinity before being reinforced by convective outflows Saturday evening. ...West TX vicinity... A weak, lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen in the Trans-Pecos vicinity, within the left-exit region of the aforementioned upper jet impinging eastward. As the cold front settles south and stalls in vicinity of this low, a very rich western Gulf airmass to its south will become strongly unstable with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg expected by late afternoon. Convective initiation appears likely north of the cold front in southeast NM to the South Plains and farther south in the lee of the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Several, largely elevated, supercells should become established north of the surface front. An elongated and nearly straight-line hodograph within the buoyancy profile should foster splitting cells with a threat for very large hail. Farther south, a few supercells along and south of the front across parts of the Permian Basin will also pose a threat for potentially giant hail as well while low-level shear is initially modest. But shear will strengthen into early evening, posing an increasing threat for a strong tornado or two. 12Z HREF members are nearly unanimous in suggesting very high updraft helicity values in at least one simulated warm-sector supercell during this time frame. Deeper into the evening, convection should increasingly consolidate and become more widespread as low-level jet mass response continues. This should favor a mix of severe wind gusts with embedded large hail and tornado threats. These hazards will subside overnight, but should linger on an isolated basis towards parts of central TX. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... A line of strong thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, from northwest MO into southeast KS. This activity should largely wane through the morning, but locally damaging winds and marginal hail will be possible until it decays. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, especially late along parts of the cold front where adequate boundary-layer destabilization occurs in the wake of the morning activity. With the Upper Midwest shortwave trough progressing northeast, strong mid-level southwesterlies will be displaced north of the destabilizing warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be modest, largely from 20-30 kts. This would be adequate for some small, multicell clusters. Overall severe threat will probably remain isolated and marginal with a mix of damaging winds and hail, largely peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. ..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late. ...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. ..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024 Read more