Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains, and over the central Plains, beginning late afternoon/early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over the northern Plains/southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces is forecast northeastward into/across western Ontario with time. As this occurs, a short-wave trough will advance eastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and emerge into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker disturbance is forecast to move eastward along the southwestern U.S./Mexico border and begin affecting the southern High Plains area by late afternoon before moving across the southern Plains overnight. At the surface, a developing cold front is forecast to shift southeastward into the central Plains through late afternoon, and then continue eastward/southeastward overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will mix gradually eastward across the southern High Plains through the afternoon. ...Portions of western Texas including the South Plains/Big Country/Concho Valley... As a very moist low-level airmass across western and central Texas warms through the day, substantial destabilization will occur. Mixed-layer CAPE values will likely reach 3000 to 4000 J/kg east the dryline, which is expected to be mixing slowly eastward across the South Plains and eastern portions of the Permian Basin near peak heating. By late afternoon, storm development is expected from the Panhandle south to/across the Rio Grande, with the most numerous storms expected within a zone extending from the South Plains to the Big Country, and south across the Concho Valley. While flow through the lower and middle troposphere will not be particularly strong, veering winds with height, and ample high-level flow, will support organized/rotating storms -- particularly given the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Very large hail will likely occur with the strongest storms, along with locally damaging gusts. A tornado or two may also occur, though overall risk should remain a bit tempered by somewhat modest low-level flow/shear. Into the evening hours, some congealing/upscale growth of convection is anticipated, which should gradually spread eastward/east-southeastward toward/into central Texas -- accompanied by risk for damaging winds and hail. ...Southern Nebraska southwestward across the western half of Kansas... Modest northward return of low-level moisture across Kansas is expected to commence ahead of the developing cold front through the afternoon. Daytime heating of the moistening boundary layer will permit 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE to evolve, leading to the development of thunderstorms along the advancing front -- first across western Nebraska, and then shifting southeastward with time. Isolated storms may also develop separately across eastern Colorado, eventually congealing into a larger convective cluster/system that is expected to move across Nebraska and Kansas through the evening. With shear sufficient for supercells, but a rather deep mixed layer anticipated, primary risk should be locally damaging wind gusts, as well as hail in the 1 to 1.75" range with the strongest storms. With upscale growth expected however, risk should favor damaging wind gusts overall. While storms will likely continue through the overnight period, shifting into/across the Mid-Missouri Valley region, severe threat should eventually diminish due to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ..Goss/Wendt.. 05/03/2024 Read more

MD 0610 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030418Z - 030615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging gusts will remain possible over central Texas for the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell currently in Lampasas County still has a robust updraft, although a weakening trend may be beginning, evidenced by both lowering echo tops and the outflow-dominant velocity signature. Given this trend, damaging gusts are likely the greatest threat with this storms, although some isolated hail is still possible. A multicellular cluster has also recently developed across Hamilton and Bosque Counties, where anvil precipitation likely helped foster mid-level initiation in an environment characterized by low-level stability. Updrafts within this cluster are strong and do have some mid-level rotation, suggesting there is some potential for large hail. There is less buoyancy and increasing convective inhibition within the downstream air mass, so the general expectation is for these storms to gradually weaken as the move eastward over the next hour or two. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31819958 32079707 31629634 30829686 30889940 31819958 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy. Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived and localized. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through northern Mexico today and eject into West Texas by early tomorrow morning. A weak surface trough is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as a result. Portions of the Southwest will experience dry and breezy conditions for period during the afternoon. Given the short duration of these conditions, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more