Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0177 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0177 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0177 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Friday. Short-duration Elevated fire weather concerns may occur briefly in eastern New Mexico, before moisture return from the east brings higher humidity and potential for high-based showers across the area late Friday. Overall, no areas warrant inclusion at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 2 19:10:02 UTC 2024.