Severe Storms

MD 0615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Far northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032009Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across parts of western and northwestern Nebraska, and far northeastern Colorado through this afternoon. Severe wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph and large hail near 1.25 to 1.75 inches will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate a cold front advancing southward across the panhandle of Nebraska and into far northeastern Colorado. Strong linear forcing along this front, along with increasing large scale ascent above it via DCVA accompanying a mid to upper shortwave trough, has resulted in thunderstorm development. The current environment preceding the front is characterized by effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt and MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Dewpoints well ahead of the front across the high plains of eastern CO and west central KS are in the low 50s, along with temperatures in the low to mid 70s, where buoyancy is increasing under steep mid level lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km. This environment will continue to advance northward with time ahead of the front with low-level moisture advection. Therefore, expect an increase in organized severe convection over the next 1-2 hours with a threat of large hail and damaging winds. ..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40110221 40190355 40700374 41330288 41850231 42050239 42210205 42230137 42200102 42150058 42030023 41759992 41509986 41270002 40900030 40580056 40160104 40110221 Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-099-032240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS KSC055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-129-135- 171-175-187-189-195-199-203-032240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NMC059-032240- Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-107-115-125-151-153-169-173-189-207- 219-227-235-253-263-279-303-305-307-335-353-399-415-417-431-433- 441-445-451-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FISHER FLOYD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD IRION JONES KENT LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MCCULLOCH MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-105-135-137-267-271-317-323-327-329-371-383-413-435- 443-461-465-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MARTIN MAVERICK MENARD MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-107-115-125-151-153-169-173-189-207- 219-227-235-253-263-279-303-305-307-335-353-399-415-417-431-433- 441-445-451-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FISHER FLOYD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD IRION JONES KENT LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MCCULLOCH MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-105-135-137-267-271-317-323-327-329-371-383-413-435- 443-461-465-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MARTIN MAVERICK MENARD MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-107-115-125-151-153-169-173-189-207- 219-227-235-253-263-279-303-305-307-335-353-399-415-417-431-433- 441-445-451-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FISHER FLOYD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALE HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD IRION JONES KENT LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MCCULLOCH MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-105-135-137-267-271-317-323-327-329-371-383-413-435- 443-461-465-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MARTIN MAVERICK MENARD MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 178 TORNADO TX 031910Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest into West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening across portions of the Watch area. Several intense supercells are likely to evolve and pose a risk for giant hail and tornadoes. The tornado risk will probably be greatest in the vicinity of a modifying boundary draped across the region. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Lubbock TX to 60 miles southeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

WW 179 SEVERE TSTM TX 032030Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells will be the preferred thunderstorm type. The stronger storms will be capable of a risk for large to giant hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest of San Angelo TX to 70 miles southwest of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather risk. ...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of TX/CO... Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM. Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon, dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure finer fuels by Sunday. Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after a few hours. Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus. Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM, but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather potential compared to previous days. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more