Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. The highest concentration of severe storms is expected from eastern Kansas to southwest Wisconsin. Damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a belt of 50-70 kt 850-700 mb southwesterly flow will overspread the Lower MO Valley to Upper Michigan. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and shift northeast from eastern NE/KS during the morning, to Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. A dryline is forecast to extend southward across western OK into southwest TX and will develop east through the afternoon. Further north, a cold front will surge east across IA/northern MO during the evening, becoming positioned from Upper Michigan to northeast IL, then southwest to central OK/northwest TX by Wednesday morning. ...Lower MO Valley to Upper Great Lakes... A warm front will lift north across southern MN into northern WI ahead of the surface low during the day. To the east of the low and eastward-advancing cold front, a broad warm sector with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is expected. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization. Initial supercells may be possible, posing a risk for all severe hazards. However, given strong forcing, both large-scale and along the advancing cold front, upscale growth into one or more linear bands/segments is likely. This may transition the main severe risk to swaths of damaging gusts by evening. ...Eastern KS/Southwest MO into OK/Northwest AR... Forcing will be weaker with southward extent into the southern Plains vicinity. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place amid supercell vertical wind profiles. More isolated convection may develop along the dryline during the afternoon in Oklahoma, and along the southern extent of the synoptic cold front across eastern KS. This activity will pose an all-hazards risk, with some potential for upscale growth during the evening, especially with any convection moving out of eastern KS into southwest MO. ...Northwest TX vicinity... A conditional threat will exist southward along the dryline. Forcing will remain weak and capping may ultimately preclude thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, strong heating along the dryline and at least modest low-level convergence may be sufficient to allow for a storm or two during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough, will eject into the central High Plains overnight. At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight, surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to shift east across central NE/KS late in the period. ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley... Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. ...Eastern IA into Lower MI... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile, steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MO vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough, will eject into the central High Plains overnight. At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight, surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to shift east across central NE/KS late in the period. ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley... Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. ...Eastern IA into Lower MI... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile, steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MO vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough, will eject into the central High Plains overnight. At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight, surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to shift east across central NE/KS late in the period. ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley... Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. ...Eastern IA into Lower MI... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile, steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MO vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough, will eject into the central High Plains overnight. At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight, surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to shift east across central NE/KS late in the period. ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley... Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. ...Eastern IA into Lower MI... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile, steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MO vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough, will eject into the central High Plains overnight. At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight, surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to shift east across central NE/KS late in the period. ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley... Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. ...Eastern IA into Lower MI... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile, steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...Central MO vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024 Read more