Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0258 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0258 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more