Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ... The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today). Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass (near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry significantly in the next 36 hours. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to moist fuels and high relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0259 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-061-085-086-093-099-111-191940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD INDIAN RIVER MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE AMZ555-610-630-650-651-191940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM Read more

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeast FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191617Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible this afternoon, with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing south of Melbourne early this afternoon, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front moving toward south FL. The environment along/south of the front is quite warm, moist, and unstable, with temperatures rising into the 90s F and MLCAPE increasing to near/above 2500 J/kg. With some upper-level support provided by a mid/upper-level trough over the Southeast, an increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible through the afternoon, especially across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula, where some influence of the Atlantic sea breeze may help to focus storms later this afternoon. Moderate midlevel flow depicted by the 12Z MFL and 15Z XMR soundings will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the potential for a couple supercells. Favorable buoyancy and some cooling aloft related to the upper trough will support a hail threat with the strongest storms, along with some damaging wind potential. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially with any cell/boundary interactions near the coast. While the primary threat area is relatively confined in area, watch issuance remains possible this afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27568139 27768047 27057999 26247983 25737997 25668016 25758056 26018070 26778096 27568139 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Monday evening into the overnight hours. Other severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday early evening. ...Front Range/Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... In the wake of the potentially intense MCS expected later today/tonight, much of the region should experience a relative lull as far as deep convection during the day on Monday. In response to phasing northern/southern streams over the Rockies and central/southern Plains, including a southern stream trough that will eject northeastward from the Southwest Deserts, post-MCS recovery will occur across Kansas with a northward flux of moisture/destabilization across the central Plains Monday night. Given the increasingly favorable large-scale influences late in the day, low-level upslope flow, enhanced by surface cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado, will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm development from the northern Colorado/southern Wyoming mountains/higher terrain toward the Front Range vicinity and especially the adjacent High Plains. These storms will encounter an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward development through early evening, with strong deep-layer shear being supportive of supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. Severe storms, potentially as an upscale-growing cluster, is expected to persist eastward across Nebraska/northern Kansas through the evening into the overnight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI to Lower Michigan... Details of Monday's severe risk will depend on the evolution and lingering influences from today's MCS across the central Plains to lower/middle Missouri Valley. The lingering convection from this MCS and its cloud debris could hinder the effective northward progression of the warm front across areas such as Wisconsin, while related ascent and enhanced mid-level winds are potential favorable factors for later-day severe, which currently appears most probable across northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, and possibly into parts of Lower Michigan. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong outside of any unknown MCV-related augmentations, but multicells capable of severe wind/hail can be expected where moderate destabilization occurs. ...Central Missouri vicinity... A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central Missouri vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or any remnant/modifying outflow could focus new thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail and strong gusts if/where storms develop. ...Southern Florida... The backside of cyclonically curved modest-strength westerlies and east coast sea breeze circulation will influence diurnally maximized scattered thunderstorm development across southeast Florida. A moist and moderately unstable environment could support a couple of locally severe storms capable of wind and/or hail. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 Read more