Severe Storms

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-192340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105- 111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103- Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more