Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

MD 0841 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259... FOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Central to western SD into the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259... Valid 192340Z - 200115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues. SUMMARY...Primary severe threat exists within the South Dakota portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity should spread into parts of north-central South Dakota, where an additional small watch or local extension may occur. Overall severe threat appears to have diminished in the Nebraska portion of the watch. DISCUSSION...While thunderstorms have subsided over the NE portion of WW 259, several individual cells appear to be growing upscale into a small MCS from western into central SD. Short-term CAM guidance suggests an MCV should emanate out of this process and yield strong to locally severe storms persisting somewhat east of the watch and beyond the 02Z scheduled expiration. Large hail from 1-1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 55-70 mph will remain the primary hazards. After dusk, a fairly pronounced gradient in MLCAPE between central to eastern SD, in conjunction with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, should result in the severe threat becoming more isolated/marginal during the late evening over eastern SD. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 46060075 46079951 45899852 45079831 44569843 44029963 42900083 42560194 42880244 44720156 45940114 46060075 Read more

WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0264 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...WESTERN MO...SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS...far southeast NE...western MO...southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 192255Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313 38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658 Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0263 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ITR TO 30 ENE AKO TO 20 WNW IML TO 25 SSE LBF TO 35 SSW ANW TO 35 W VTN TO 40 ENE CDR TO 35 SE RAP TO 10 NNE Y22. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC029-063-085-200040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE FRONTIER HAYES SDC007-021-031-041-055-065-071-075-085-095-107-117-119-121-123- 129-137-200040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE BGD TO 30 SSE LBL TO 20 WNW LBL TO 40 NNE EHA TO 25 E LAA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-113- 115-119-123-127-135-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-163-165-167-169- 171-173-175-185-191-195-203-200040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CLARK CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION MEADE MITCHELL MORRIS NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK SEWARD STAFFORD Read more

MD 0839 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...much of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 192217Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to continue to gradually evolve and organize during the next couple of hours, with severe wind gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph becoming the most prominent severe hazard by 7-8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Embedded within 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, an ongoing intense supercell has been rightward (eastward) propagating toward the Salina KS vicinity. This motion is roughly coincident with a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented warm frontal zone, extending along/north of the Interstate 70 corridor into northeastern Kansas. Given enhanced forcing for ascent associated with low-level convergence and warm advection along this boundary, and fairly sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads to the south of the front, further upscale growth and evolution into a more prominent bowing structure with strong damaging surface gusts becoming the primary severe hazards seems probable through 23-01Z. At the same time, as a low-amplitude short wave trough continues to gradually emerge from the southern Rockies, intensifying storms along the dryline north of Garden City KS into the Clinton-Sherman OK vicinity may continue to increase along consolidating eastward propagating outflows, aided by inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE to around 3000 J/kg. In the presence of seasonably moderate to strong shear, this activity seems likely to gradually organize. The evolution of one or two increasingly prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale vortices appears possible, with the quasi-stationary front north of Dodge City into the Russell/Salina vicinities one potential focus for strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39669764 39879551 38509541 37709738 36459817 36049924 36329991 37309965 38230020 38669959 39149846 39669764 Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC125-200040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YUMA KSC023-039-109-137-147-153-179-181-193-199-200040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC057-065-087-145-200040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY FURNAS HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0262 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258... Valid 192153Z - 200000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues across parts of the southeast Florida coast. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations continue to show deep convection developing along and behind a southward-surging outflow boundary along the southeast FL coast. While most storms have struggled to intensify due to the undercutting nature of the boundary, a few deeper cells have managed to mature within an otherwise favorable supercell environment. A sea-breeze boundary remains evident along the southeastern FL coast ahead of the outflow boundary, and while deeper convective initiation has occurred within the past hour, strengthening low-level westerly winds has shifted the boundary closer to the coast, resulting in quick storm propagation offshore. The general expectation over the next 1-2 hours is for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms along the southeast FL coast with a few strong to severe cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. This threat will gradually abate through the evening hours amid the onset of nocturnal cooling and a continued southward surge of the undercutting outflow boundary. ..Moore.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 26888070 26938060 26938008 26848003 26588002 26418005 26238008 26098010 25938010 25768011 25688014 25648024 25628031 25708045 25798057 25938066 26068073 26198078 26328083 26538085 26668083 26788078 26888070 Read more