Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0261 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0261 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0834 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258... Valid 191935Z - 192130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and damaging winds is gradually spreading southward along the southeastern Florida coast. Areas that have not yet seen thunderstorm activity should see the severe threat increase in the coming hours. DISCUSSION...Latest imagery from KMLB and surface observations show an outflow boundary pushing southward along the southeastern FL coast. This outflow continues to initiate, and quickly undercut, convection as storms move east off shore. Despite the undercutting nature of the front, splitting supercells have been observed given favorable elongated hodographs with severe hail reported over the past hour or so. New convection (including the potential for splitting supercells) should continue to develop along the boundary as it migrates south where temperatures in the low to mid 90s are supporting SBCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg (per recent RAP mesoanalyses). Further south, a few attempts at convective initiation are noted along a sea breeze boundary draped from roughly Fort Lauderdale to Homestead, FL. Sustained convection may initiate after a few more attempts within the next 1-2 hours, but the exact timing and coverage of storms is uncertain given weaker forcing for ascent along this boundary. Regardless, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (with an attendant hail/wind threat) should continue, if not increase, across much of Watch 258 given improving thermodynamic conditions. ..Moore.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 26128002 25738010 25508017 25298046 25288059 25338072 25518083 25678085 25838078 25978069 26148069 26328073 26458082 26568094 26868097 27128084 27268052 27368034 27328016 27238005 27098002 26617996 26128002 Read more

MD 0833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Parts of Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191905Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A favorable mesoscale environment for severe weather, including tornadoes, will exist along an outflow boundary in central Kansas. Storm coverage may remain isolated at least in the short term. A watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A storm has developed in Trego County. This development appears to have evolved out of elevated convective activity. This storm has not been overly organized per KGLD/KDDC radar imagery, but the environment along an outflow boundary continues to destabilize. The potential exists for this storm to become rooted at the surface. With surface heating occurring north of the outflow, MLCIN should steadily erode and not be overly prohibitive to storm maintenance. Low-level shear will be locally maximized near the outflow boundary. As such, any storm that can favorably interact with this boundary will have greater potential to produce a tornado as well as very-large hail. Additional storms could develop farther east, but this scenario is more uncertain. Some high-resolution guidance evolves this activity into a linear segment. Severe wind gusts would become a greater threat if that occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38699862 38589952 38740019 38960014 39049982 39059946 39299860 39849761 39819695 39519679 38829789 38699862 Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-113- 115-119-123-127-129-135-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-163-165-167- 169-171-173-175-185-187-189-191-195-203-192140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CLARK CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HARPER HARVEY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION MEADE MITCHELL MORRIS MORTON NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-192140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105- 111-113-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-192140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC007-021-031-033-041-047-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103- Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO 55 NE PBI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 ..MOORE..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-085-086-099-192140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD MARTIN MIAMI-DADE PALM BEACH AMZ610-630-650-651-192140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM Read more

MD 0832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191829Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest that storm initiation is probable within the next couple of hours in southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas. Development along the dryline farther east is less certain, but possible. Very-large hail, widespread severe wind gusts, and tornado or two are expected. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has been steadily increasing along the Raton Mesa over the past couple of hours. While initial towers have not been sustained, the continued approach of a shortwave perturbation --now in the Four Corners vicinity per water vapor imagery--should aid in the deepening of these cumulus and eventually storm initiation somewhere in southeast Colorado into far western Kansas. Early convection will likely be present within a dry/well-mixed environment and be capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. As this activity moves farther into Kansas, dewpoints now in the low 60s F should support rapid intensification. Effective shear 40-50 kts will promote supercells. The longevity of supercells is a bit uncertain. Should storms initiate on the dryline itself, they would be likely to remain supercellular longer. Activity approaching from the southwest would be more outflow dominant early in its life cycle, which could lead to a shorter duration of discrete mode as it encounters greater moisture. All that said, large to very large hail will be possible with any supercell. The tornado threat is not as clear given somewhat weak low-level winds that will increase after the storm mode will likely be more linear. Supercells in this strongly buoyant environment could still produce a tornado or two. With time, the expectation is for some amount of upscale growth to occur with an increase in severe wind gust potential. Some of these gusts could reach 75-90 mph. Farther south into northwest Oklahoma, timing of initiation is likely to be later than farther north given less influence of the shortwave and stronger capping. However, storms are more likely to be discrete and surface winds into western Oklahoma may remain more backed. In addition to the very-large hail and severe wind gust threat, tornadoes would be more probable in this mesoscale corridor. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37100193 37750235 38490247 38780223 38830145 38700018 38589922 38309882 37579851 37089858 35519932 35509997 35650028 37100193 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1 Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead to potentially significant severe wind potential across southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is consistent with latest WoFS forecasts. ..Guyer.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. Read more