Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated highlights were expanded slightly southward in central AZ, where modestly dry/breezy conditions are expected over recent/ongoing fires. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the western CONUS today. Meanwhile, a mid-level speed max will accelerate from the Southwest into the southern Plains. As a result, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in the central High Plains. This will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS, but especially across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across eastern New Mexico and perhaps into the TX/OK Panhandles and far southeast Colorado where single digit relative humidity is likely. Fuels across eastern New Mexico and vicinity are only marginally dry after recent rainfall, but will continue to dry during the day. Therefore, with low-end Critical meteorological conditions and marginally dry fuels, an Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern AZ. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon, with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central High Plains. This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds and hail. As this activity builds eastward across the dryline, rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected. Forecast soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into western Oklahoma. As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind damage for a few hours. It remains unclear how far east this threat will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS. ...Eastern FL... A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula today. Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and strong daytime heating occurring. It appears likely that at least scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea breeze later this afternoon. Any storm that can intensify before it moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. See mesoscale discussion #829 for further details. ...SD/NE/Northeast CO... Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in the region. A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE and northeast CO. These storms will be relatively high-based, but in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread into central SD/NE before weakening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2024 Read more