Severe Storms

MD 0827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NC INTO NORTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...NC into northern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182049Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of NC late this afternoon, near a weak cold front draped across northern NC, and also near a confluence zone farther south into central/eastern NC. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer has resulted in moderate destabilization south of the cold front, and a further increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible with time into early evening. This area is on the northern fringe of stronger deep-layer flow associated with a shortwave trough over the TN Valley vicinity, and some modest storm organization is possible. Initial more discrete storms may be capable of producing isolated hail and damaging gusts. With time, some consolidation of storms will be possible along the southward-moving cold front. This may lead to some increase in damaging-wind potential, though there may also be a tendency for the front to undercut storms as outflow helps to accelerate it southward. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34978279 35118326 35428330 35568319 35698275 35858203 36378099 36398094 36188010 35897930 35827851 35897813 35937764 35947719 35667623 35237628 34987634 34607651 34327717 34127794 34277914 34468018 34658121 34978279 Read more

MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182003Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over the next few hours, with areas of strong to locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the area has resulted in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures rise through the 80s F. A prominent cold front/wind shift is moving across western WI and into the western MI U.P. with signs of deepening convection within a pre-frontal warm conveyor. Winds veering with height which may tend to favor cellular storm mode, with a broken line of storms possible along the front. This may favor hail initially. With time, outflows may consolidate, with perhaps linear segments along the front aiding wind potential. Midlevel wind speeds averaging near 40 kt along with the steep boundary layer lapse rates may tend to favor strong outflow production this afternoon into the early evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44628944 43748984 43489016 43409062 43539097 43969129 44479133 45199120 46319098 46679078 47089043 47118994 46988929 46228911 45538926 44628944 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0257 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0257 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 18 20:16:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible in the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Cloud cover has remained across portions of southeast Georgia into North Florida. Furthermore, outflow from convection has surged south of Jacksonville. Storms are initiating on this boundary, but are quickly being undercut. Wind probabilities have been reduced in these areas as the environment has generally become more stable in the wake of the boundary. A few marginal supercells have develop both near/north of Orlando and along the sea breeze boundary in eastern Florida, the 5% wind/hail probabilities have been adjusted to account for this activity. The 15Z Cape Canaveral sounding showed 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 43 kts of effective shear. Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible, but weak mid-level ascent and warmer temperatures aloft (-7 C) should limit overall storm organization/intensity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged other than adjustments to the general thunderstorm areas to account for current observations. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. Read more