Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap increasingly receptive fuels. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade to Critical may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap increasingly receptive fuels. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade to Critical may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap increasingly receptive fuels. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade to Critical may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap increasingly receptive fuels. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade to Critical may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0825 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...the eastern FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181816Z - 182015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A very warm and moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s F and dewpoints well into the 70s F. Recent objective mesoanalyses and the 15Z XMR sounding (modified for current surface conditions) indicate that MLCAPE has increased to near/above 2500 J/kg across most of the peninsula early this afternoon. Meanwhile, modest midlevel southwesterly flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for somewhat organized convection. Decreasing MLCINH could result in isolated storm initiation over a larger portion of the central/eastern peninsula, but the greatest storm coverage is expected to focus near the east coast sea breeze later this afternoon. A few stronger multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with the sea breeze boundary. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...JAX... LAT...LON 25808046 27268063 28858168 29858226 30218171 30238121 29508074 29108057 28698036 27608002 26267998 25748008 25808046 Read more

MD 0824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast MS into northern AL and southern middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181644Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts may accompany storms this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a compact midlevel low (which is centered near the TN/AR/MS border) is gradually intensifying late this morning from northeast MS into northern AL and southern middle TN. Some continued increase in storm coverage and intensity may continue into this afternoon, within a moist and uncapped environment (with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg). This region is on the northern periphery of stronger flow aloft, but effective shear of 25-35 kt could occasionally support some modestly organized storm structures through the afternoon. Isolated hail could accompany any storms that remain semi-discrete, while a bowing segment or two could evolve with a threat of isolated damaging gusts as storms spread eastward across northern AL and southern middle TN. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33459003 33988863 34528811 35538746 35468655 35418594 34968580 33888598 33298688 32898776 32698850 32658914 32878966 33459003 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more