Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Wednesday, but an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out over parts of the Northeast and Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over northern Ontario with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes and New England. Within this flow regime, a leading shortwave trough will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with an associated wind shift/weak surface trough over eastern NY and PA by Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, dewpoints in the 60s F will gradually spread north, resulting in marginal instability supporting scattered thunderstorms. To the west, high pressure will result in relatively stable conditions over much of the central and northern plains, MS and OH Valleys, with decreasing moisture to the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. Very weak levels of instability may result in a few lightning strikes over far northern ND and MN overnight as low-amplitude but strong wave moves southeastward out of Canada providing lift and steepening lapse rates aloft, but severe weather is unlikely. Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely from northern into central TX as a east-west front slows. Sufficient instability will exist for strong updrafts, but weak shear and lack of large-scale support suggests any strong wind gusts should be disorganized and localized. ...Northeast... Scattered storms are likely along a cold front during the day over central PA and NY, and into southern New England associated with warm/moist advection. Despite the presence of the upper trough, lapse rates are forecast to be poor. In addition, mean wind speeds in the lowest few km do not appear to support severe wind gusts along the front. Low-level winds do veer with height over southern New England, where dewpoints will rise to 68-70 F. However, wind speeds and thus SRH will remain weak here as well, generally under 100 m2/s2. Depending on mesocale factors during the day, a Marginal could be needed for isolated weakly rotating storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 08/27/2019 Read more

MD 1880 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1880 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Areas affected...east-central Minnesota...northern Wisconsin...and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271731Z - 271930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Areas of gusty winds and small hail are likely with storms moving through the discussion area this afternoon. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...A small linear band of convection has evolved from near D25 to TKV across north-central Wisconsin. Additional convection was deepening across central Minnesota near STC. These storms are in an environment characterized by appreciable mid-level flow (35-45 kts), unidirectional wind profiles, and steep lapse rates associated with a broad mid-level trough centered over western Ontario. These lapse rates and near 60F dewpoints were boosting MUCAPE values to the 1000-1500 J/kg range while also supporting surface-based convection. Downdraft potential within ongoing convection should foster an isolated damaging-wind threat, and small hail will also be possible. Over time, models/PFCs suggest that cooling mid-level temperatures will continue to maintain instability and contribute to deepening convection over time. Lift associated with approaching upstream shortwaves and continued insolation will also further support an increase in scattered, marginally severe convection through the day. This diurnally driven severe threat should be too isolated/marginal for a WW issuance, however. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46429285 46239374 45989480 45469488 45059408 44839283 44749130 44818981 45048848 45368759 45718701 46108669 46518665 46768689 46968758 47138819 47138912 46999006 46919096 46829126 46429285 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

The 3,320-acre Gregerson Fire in the Delamar Mountains Wilderness, about 20 miles southeast of Alamo, in Lincoln County, Nev., is 100-percent contained. The Bureau of Land Management implemented a full-suppression strategy on the fire with assistance from the Forest Service, Lincoln County Fire Protection District and private contractors. The fire was first reported shortly before 10 a.m., Friday, Aug. 23. The cause is unknown.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS WI/UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move from MN across WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening, around the southern periphery of a developing closed low over MB/western ON. Surface heating and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures near -20 C, will result in low-midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. Scattered low-topped thunderstorms are expected in the corridor immediately preceding the shortwave trough this afternoon/evening, and a few of the storms could produce strong outflow gusts and hail approaching one inch in diameter. ...Elsewhere... The richer low-level moisture has been shunted south of the stronger midlevel flow by a surface cold front and multiple convective outflows from overnight convection that have now spread southward to the I-20 corridor from north TX to central MS. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 76-80 F are present south of the outflow boundaries from southeast TX eastward, but vertical shear is weak and there is little focus for storm initiation aside from the outflows. Isolated strong gusts could occur with downbursts, but the overall severe threat is too limited to warrant introduction of any damaging wind probabilities. Farther west, very steep lapse rates were observed at MAF, though surface temperatures in excess of 105 F are needed to eliminate convective inhibition. There will be some threat for storms late this afternoon into early tonight along the surface front/stalling outflow, with isolated strong downbursts possible in the steep lapse rate environment. ..Thompson/Cook.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS WI/UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move from MN across WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening, around the southern periphery of a developing closed low over MB/western ON. Surface heating and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures near -20 C, will result in low-midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. Scattered low-topped thunderstorms are expected in the corridor immediately preceding the shortwave trough this afternoon/evening, and a few of the storms could produce strong outflow gusts and hail approaching one inch in diameter. ...Elsewhere... The richer low-level moisture has been shunted south of the stronger midlevel flow by a surface cold front and multiple convective outflows from overnight convection that have now spread southward to the I-20 corridor from north TX to central MS. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 76-80 F are present south of the outflow boundaries from southeast TX eastward, but vertical shear is weak and there is little focus for storm initiation aside from the outflows. Isolated strong gusts could occur with downbursts, but the overall severe threat is too limited to warrant introduction of any damaging wind probabilities. Farther west, very steep lapse rates were observed at MAF, though surface temperatures in excess of 105 F are needed to eliminate convective inhibition. There will be some threat for storms late this afternoon into early tonight along the surface front/stalling outflow, with isolated strong downbursts possible in the steep lapse rate environment. ..Thompson/Cook.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS WI/UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move from MN across WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening, around the southern periphery of a developing closed low over MB/western ON. Surface heating and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures near -20 C, will result in low-midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. Scattered low-topped thunderstorms are expected in the corridor immediately preceding the shortwave trough this afternoon/evening, and a few of the storms could produce strong outflow gusts and hail approaching one inch in diameter. ...Elsewhere... The richer low-level moisture has been shunted south of the stronger midlevel flow by a surface cold front and multiple convective outflows from overnight convection that have now spread southward to the I-20 corridor from north TX to central MS. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 76-80 F are present south of the outflow boundaries from southeast TX eastward, but vertical shear is weak and there is little focus for storm initiation aside from the outflows. Isolated strong gusts could occur with downbursts, but the overall severe threat is too limited to warrant introduction of any damaging wind probabilities. Farther west, very steep lapse rates were observed at MAF, though surface temperatures in excess of 105 F are needed to eliminate convective inhibition. There will be some threat for storms late this afternoon into early tonight along the surface front/stalling outflow, with isolated strong downbursts possible in the steep lapse rate environment. ..Thompson/Cook.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS WI/UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move from MN across WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening, around the southern periphery of a developing closed low over MB/western ON. Surface heating and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures near -20 C, will result in low-midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. Scattered low-topped thunderstorms are expected in the corridor immediately preceding the shortwave trough this afternoon/evening, and a few of the storms could produce strong outflow gusts and hail approaching one inch in diameter. ...Elsewhere... The richer low-level moisture has been shunted south of the stronger midlevel flow by a surface cold front and multiple convective outflows from overnight convection that have now spread southward to the I-20 corridor from north TX to central MS. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 76-80 F are present south of the outflow boundaries from southeast TX eastward, but vertical shear is weak and there is little focus for storm initiation aside from the outflows. Isolated strong gusts could occur with downbursts, but the overall severe threat is too limited to warrant introduction of any damaging wind probabilities. Farther west, very steep lapse rates were observed at MAF, though surface temperatures in excess of 105 F are needed to eliminate convective inhibition. There will be some threat for storms late this afternoon into early tonight along the surface front/stalling outflow, with isolated strong downbursts possible in the steep lapse rate environment. ..Thompson/Cook.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in western Oregon into western Washington as hot/dry/unstable/breezy conditions are expected along/near the thermally-induced surface pressure trough. Northerly to easterly surface winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH values of 10-30% are expected to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in western Oregon into western Washington as hot/dry/unstable/breezy conditions are expected along/near the thermally-induced surface pressure trough. Northerly to easterly surface winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH values of 10-30% are expected to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in western Oregon into western Washington as hot/dry/unstable/breezy conditions are expected along/near the thermally-induced surface pressure trough. Northerly to easterly surface winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH values of 10-30% are expected to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in western Oregon into western Washington as hot/dry/unstable/breezy conditions are expected along/near the thermally-induced surface pressure trough. Northerly to easterly surface winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH values of 10-30% are expected to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the West Coast while amplifying slightly today. Hot/dry conditions are expected much of the areas west of the Continental Divide. At the surface, high pressure over the central Rockies/High Plains in combination with a thermally-driven surface trough along the west coast of Oregon will drive easterly downslope flow for much of western Oregon. Some locations may see afternoon RH below 20%, but most areas will likely fall between 20-35%. Winds will generally be light (10-15 mph). However, areas near the Columbia Gorge in the northern Willamette Valley could see terrain enhanced flow of 15+ mph. As the spatial extent of elevated conditions is expected to remain small, no areas will be introduced. A few lightning strikes may occur along and just into the eastern slopes of the Sierra in central California. There is currently too much uncertainty as to whether these storms will impact areas outside of the highest peaks for greater fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On the evening of July 24, 2019, a lightning strike ignited a single tree in the Park Ridge area of Boulder Mountain. Fremont River Ranger District plans to manage this ignition to aid towards a healthy Ponderosa pine ecosystem, by utilizing low intensity under burn

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TX AND EAST-CENTRAL MN TO UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...West TX... A decaying, southward-moving MCS is ongoing across north-central to northeast TX. Guidance generally agrees that this MCS will further decay as it shifts into progressively weaker upper-level flow with southern extent and becomes separated from isentropic ascent focused across the low-level baroclinic zone that lingers farther northwest in OK. Potential for late afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused farther west from western North Texas to the Permian Basin. Reinvigorated low-level warm advection on the cool side of the front might support a cluster of elevated convection, with possibly a separate area of development farther southwest where convergence should be maximized along the surface front. Deep-layer shear will be modest and weaker with southwest extent despite veering of the wind profile with height. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe hail risk, while hot surface temperatures south of the front may yield a few severe wind gusts, mainly in the evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... As pronounced mid-level DCVA occurs ahead of a shortwave impulse moving from the SD/MN border to eastern WI, scattered low-topped convection will develop this afternoon. The bulk of strong southwesterlies aloft should reside in the upper portion of the weak buoyancy profile, which would curb effective shear values. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support mixing of moderate 700-mb flow despite predominant west-southwesterly boundary-layer winds. Setup could foster locally damaging winds from strong gusts along with marginally severe hail. ...Lower MS Valley to OH... Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop along residual outflows from remnant early-day convection, most likely across the Lower MS to TN Valleys where boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced. Weak deep-layer shear in these regions should preclude an organized severe risk, but pulse microbursts are possible. Farther north into OH, pervasive cloudiness in morning visible imagery should limit boundary-layer heating. Given weak mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will likely remain below 1000 J/kg. In combination with modest deep-layer speed shear, overall setup appears unlikely to yield an appreciable organized severe risk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TX AND EAST-CENTRAL MN TO UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...West TX... A decaying, southward-moving MCS is ongoing across north-central to northeast TX. Guidance generally agrees that this MCS will further decay as it shifts into progressively weaker upper-level flow with southern extent and becomes separated from isentropic ascent focused across the low-level baroclinic zone that lingers farther northwest in OK. Potential for late afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused farther west from western North Texas to the Permian Basin. Reinvigorated low-level warm advection on the cool side of the front might support a cluster of elevated convection, with possibly a separate area of development farther southwest where convergence should be maximized along the surface front. Deep-layer shear will be modest and weaker with southwest extent despite veering of the wind profile with height. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe hail risk, while hot surface temperatures south of the front may yield a few severe wind gusts, mainly in the evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... As pronounced mid-level DCVA occurs ahead of a shortwave impulse moving from the SD/MN border to eastern WI, scattered low-topped convection will develop this afternoon. The bulk of strong southwesterlies aloft should reside in the upper portion of the weak buoyancy profile, which would curb effective shear values. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support mixing of moderate 700-mb flow despite predominant west-southwesterly boundary-layer winds. Setup could foster locally damaging winds from strong gusts along with marginally severe hail. ...Lower MS Valley to OH... Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop along residual outflows from remnant early-day convection, most likely across the Lower MS to TN Valleys where boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced. Weak deep-layer shear in these regions should preclude an organized severe risk, but pulse microbursts are possible. Farther north into OH, pervasive cloudiness in morning visible imagery should limit boundary-layer heating. Given weak mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will likely remain below 1000 J/kg. In combination with modest deep-layer speed shear, overall setup appears unlikely to yield an appreciable organized severe risk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TX AND EAST-CENTRAL MN TO UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...West TX... A decaying, southward-moving MCS is ongoing across north-central to northeast TX. Guidance generally agrees that this MCS will further decay as it shifts into progressively weaker upper-level flow with southern extent and becomes separated from isentropic ascent focused across the low-level baroclinic zone that lingers farther northwest in OK. Potential for late afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused farther west from western North Texas to the Permian Basin. Reinvigorated low-level warm advection on the cool side of the front might support a cluster of elevated convection, with possibly a separate area of development farther southwest where convergence should be maximized along the surface front. Deep-layer shear will be modest and weaker with southwest extent despite veering of the wind profile with height. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe hail risk, while hot surface temperatures south of the front may yield a few severe wind gusts, mainly in the evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... As pronounced mid-level DCVA occurs ahead of a shortwave impulse moving from the SD/MN border to eastern WI, scattered low-topped convection will develop this afternoon. The bulk of strong southwesterlies aloft should reside in the upper portion of the weak buoyancy profile, which would curb effective shear values. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support mixing of moderate 700-mb flow despite predominant west-southwesterly boundary-layer winds. Setup could foster locally damaging winds from strong gusts along with marginally severe hail. ...Lower MS Valley to OH... Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop along residual outflows from remnant early-day convection, most likely across the Lower MS to TN Valleys where boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced. Weak deep-layer shear in these regions should preclude an organized severe risk, but pulse microbursts are possible. Farther north into OH, pervasive cloudiness in morning visible imagery should limit boundary-layer heating. Given weak mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will likely remain below 1000 J/kg. In combination with modest deep-layer speed shear, overall setup appears unlikely to yield an appreciable organized severe risk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TX AND EAST-CENTRAL MN TO UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west Texas during the late afternoon and evening, and from east-central Minnesota to Upper Michigan this afternoon. ...West TX... A decaying, southward-moving MCS is ongoing across north-central to northeast TX. Guidance generally agrees that this MCS will further decay as it shifts into progressively weaker upper-level flow with southern extent and becomes separated from isentropic ascent focused across the low-level baroclinic zone that lingers farther northwest in OK. Potential for late afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused farther west from western North Texas to the Permian Basin. Reinvigorated low-level warm advection on the cool side of the front might support a cluster of elevated convection, with possibly a separate area of development farther southwest where convergence should be maximized along the surface front. Deep-layer shear will be modest and weaker with southwest extent despite veering of the wind profile with height. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe hail risk, while hot surface temperatures south of the front may yield a few severe wind gusts, mainly in the evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... As pronounced mid-level DCVA occurs ahead of a shortwave impulse moving from the SD/MN border to eastern WI, scattered low-topped convection will develop this afternoon. The bulk of strong southwesterlies aloft should reside in the upper portion of the weak buoyancy profile, which would curb effective shear values. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support mixing of moderate 700-mb flow despite predominant west-southwesterly boundary-layer winds. Setup could foster locally damaging winds from strong gusts along with marginally severe hail. ...Lower MS Valley to OH... Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop along residual outflows from remnant early-day convection, most likely across the Lower MS to TN Valleys where boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced. Weak deep-layer shear in these regions should preclude an organized severe risk, but pulse microbursts are possible. Farther north into OH, pervasive cloudiness in morning visible imagery should limit boundary-layer heating. Given weak mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will likely remain below 1000 J/kg. In combination with modest deep-layer speed shear, overall setup appears unlikely to yield an appreciable organized severe risk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/27/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CHK TO 20 S OKC TO 10 NW ADM TO 20 ESE ADM TO 10 NNE DUA. WW 625 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 271100Z. ..MOSIER..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-015-019-051-067-085-095-127-137-271100- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CADDO CARTER GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 625 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 270350Z - 271100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and northern Arkansas Southern Missouri Southern and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1050 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will continue to steadily progress southeastward across the region late this evening and overnight, with damaging winds continuing to be a concern. These storms have a history of producing very strong winds across central/northeast Oklahoma this evening. Isolated severe hail may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chickasha OK to 35 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 624... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 34030. ...Guyer Read more