Aggregator

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-141- 143-149-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-270540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON OZARK SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-049-051-061-063-067-069- Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0625 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into southern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270321Z - 270515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue along the advancing cold front, and will gradually spread into areas south and east of WW 624. This will likely require new WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of strong/severe storms extending across central and northeast Oklahoma, roughly coincident with an advancing cold front. Severe wind gusts continue to be reported with stronger storms, and large hail is also likely occurring locally, per latest radar data. As the front continues a southeastward advance, existing pre-frontal instability should permit a continuation of locally vigorous convection. As such, the likelihood that some risk for damaging winds will spread to areas outside the exist watch, will likely require new WW issuance. ..Goss.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34019870 35199896 36969599 37439431 37579195 34439308 34019870 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CSM TO 30 E END TO 20 WNW BVO TO 30 SSE CNU TO 30 N JLN TO 60 SSW SZL. ..WENDT..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-270340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MOC011-097-119-145-270340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening, initially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with storms expanding/developing south-southeastward through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, although a tornado cannot be ruled out particularly across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Chanute KS to 20 miles south southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central and northeastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270234Z - 270430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated intense storms are ongoing within portions of WW 624. Strong/damaging wind gusts and some hail may occur, along with potential for a tornadic spin-up. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated intense storms occurring near a southward-moving cold front, including storms affecting both the Tulsa and Oklahoma City vicinities. The storms are occurring within a thermodynamic environment featuring mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg, and appear particularly capable of producing very strong wind gusts. Several measured gusts in the 70 to 80 MPH range have occurred over the past hour or so, and expect this caliber of wind gusts to remain possible over the next 1-2 hours, including the OKC metro area. ..Goss.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34659850 35619870 37829426 36989362 36239381 34819643 34659850 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

MD 1873 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...Central and northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270054Z - 270300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts in WW 624. Some risk for tornadoes exists where storms may interact with an outflow boundary in southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Storm activity has been on the increase over the last hour with development recently in north-central Oklahoma as well some increase in intensity in southeast Kansas. Modest capping evident on the 00Z OUN sounding has slowed an increase in storm coverage thus far. Storms that have been able to initiate will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts with extreme buoyancy of 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. A tornado or two will also be possible for any discrete storms, where the threat will be maximized in southeastern Kansas/far northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri where storms may interact with an outflow boundary from earlier convection. Elsewhere, frontal forcing should eventually lead to more linear modes of convection into the early/mid evening. The overall expectation is for activity to continue to increase in coverage as the front continues to move south, while the low-level jet will modestly increase and impinge upon the boundary later this evening. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35469869 35869842 36129810 36519752 37219646 37709559 37839492 37579409 36799410 36249431 35659520 35009664 34749765 34859843 34979867 35469869 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW END TO 25 NE CNU. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-037-099-125-133-205-270140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-097-119-145-270140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC011-097-119-145-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD Read more

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and Kenai Peninsula Borough, due to the wildfires that have consumed roughly 83 structures and damaged public facilities, communications and utility lines. The McKinley, Deshka Landing and Swan Lake wildfires caused the evacuations of about 400 people and disrupted travel along the Sterling and Parks highways and the Alaska Railroad. Drought, exceedingly dry fuels, strong winds and low humidity have hindered firefighting efforts. KTVA-TV CBS 11 Anchorage (Alaska), Aug. 23, 2019

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

MD 1872 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys west-southwest to northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623... Valid 262248Z - 262345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 continues. SUMMARY...Limited severe risk continues in/near WW 623. As storms spread/develop outside of the existing watch, a new WW may be considered. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-organized band of storms moving across southeast Missouri at this time, in the southeastern portions of WW 623. Meanwhile to the west-southwest, a lone severe storm continues moving southward across Newton/Searcy Counties in Arkansas, but has shown signs of weakening with time. As the band of storms within WW 623 shift southeastward, they will gradually encounter a more stable airmass, per objective analyses. As such, long-term trends are expected to be downward, in terms of potential storm severity. One exception could be with any cells that could develop on the western flank of the ongoing band of storms, as a more unstable airmass remains present across northern and western Arkansas. Still, with stronger flow aloft to remain from the Ozarks northward, any risk should remain limited, and thus current expectations are that a new/downstream watch may not be required. ..Goss.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37578939 37338813 36248855 35279068 35399280 35939331 36429254 36649106 37578939 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-153-181-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER PULASKI UNION MOC023-133-143-181-201-207-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more