Aggregator

The Vivian Fire in Foard County started August 20, 2019 approximately 8 miles west of Crowell on highway 70.The Southern Area Type 1 Incident Management Red Team is currently in unified command with Texas A&M Forest Service to manage the fire. A temporary flight restriction, NOTAM 9/6654, is in place over the fire area to provide a safe environment for firefighting aircraft.

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..08/29/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-071-109-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199- 203-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC019-029-047-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-137-145-292340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CHASE DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK KEARNEY PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 626 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 292020Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and north central Kansas Southwest and south central Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 4-5pm CDT from northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska, and storms will spread east-southeastward through late evening. The initial storms could be supercells with very large hail, and there will also be some potential for a tornado or two with storms developing on the surface boundary across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Thereafter, storm mergers and upscale growth will support an increasing threat for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Mccook NE to 55 miles south southeast of Kearney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Thompson Read more

Firefighters are currently working to contain the Copper Breaks wildfire in Hardeman County. The fire started August 16, 2019 south of Quanah, Texas.The wildfire burned in rough terrain, with multiple structures threatened and saved. Ground crews are engaged in patrol and mop up, with support from helicopters, if needed. Air Attack is relaying fire size and behavior, working in unison with aircraft and ground crews. The Southern Area Type 1 Incident Management Red Team is currently in unified command with Texas A&M Forest Service to manage the fire.A temporary flight restriction, NOTAM 9/6654, is in place over the fire area to provide a safe environment for firefighting

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0627 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0626 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 29 20:08:04 UTC 2019.

MD 1887 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...Parts of central/east central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292006Z - 292100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated storm may continue to pose a risk for severe hail, before transitioning to more of a potentially damaging wind threat, through 5-6 PM. Unless activity shows signs of more substantive upscale growth, a severe weather watch might not be needed. DISCUSSION...Lingering warm advection along the southwestern flank of the convectively generated cold pool appeared to provide the support for redevelopment of ongoing isolated vigorous thunderstorm activity near Moberly. This is now likely rooted within a moist boundary layer air mass which appears characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, which has aided the evolution of supercell structure in the presence of favorable shear beneath 25-30+ kt northwesterly 500 mb flow. Models still suggest that west-southwesterly low-level flow will continue to generally weaken to the west the Mississippi River through late afternoon, and large-scale forcing for ascent to support maintenance of convection is unclear. However, given the boundary layer destabilization which has taken place, storm-scale processes could maintain the ongoing storm, which probably will tend to propagate south-southeastward, toward areas near/east of Columbia and Jefferson City through 21-23Z. If this occurs, activity may continue to pose a risk for severe hail, before perhaps transitioning to a severe wind threat. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 39459194 38919146 38509185 38649219 39049244 39479248 39459194 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS WELL EXTREME SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from far southern Nebraska across much of northern Kansas with damaging winds and hail. A few severe storms are also possible over southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. ...Southern NE into northeast KS... The air mass continues to destabilize across the region, with ample low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the boundary from eastern CO into northwest KS where temperatures continued to rise into the lower 90s F. Rapid storm development is expected once the cap is completely breached, with additional development likely to follow along the primary east-west boundary over southern NE. Supercells are expected initially with very large hail, with an increasing damaging wind threat as storms bow toward the east/southeast. A more pronounced turn to the southeast is expected later tonight as activity develops into eastern KS, with a continued wind threat. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 1886. ...WI and IL... Outflow from earlier activity has created a relatively stable area from southeast IA into western IL and northeast MO. Given the progressing cold front just west of this area, it is unlikely that much severe activity will occur there. The best chance of a few severe storms, including a supercell or brief tornado, will be over southeast Wisconsin where the best combination of instability and shear exist. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1885. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... Within a belt of broadly cyclonic flow aloft, an embedded shortwave trough/speed max will move over WI/Upper MI this afternoon, driving a surface cold front southeastward across WI/MI. A band of elevated thunderstorms immediately precedes the front across WI as of late morning, and some form of this convection is likely to persist into the afternoon into southeast WI and Lower MI. The degree of surface destabilization prior to frontal passage is the primary concern across WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening, as the stronger forcing for ascent appears likely to overspread northeast WI/northern Lower MI, just northeast of the more substantial destabilization. Vertical shear profiles will favor supercells if sufficient destabilization can occur prior to frontal passage, though storm coverage is also in doubt northeast of the IA cluster and south of the stronger ascent. Farther southwest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms will likely be maintained into early afternoon from southeast IA to northeast MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection. Additional storm development is expected west of this cluster late this afternoon/evening as the surface cold front reaches southern IA/northern MO. The background environment with large buoyancy and marginal deep-layer vertical shear appears to favor multicell clusters and some embedded supercells initially, though back-building as clusters/line segments is most probable along the front this evening into tonight. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern NE/northern KS this afternoon through tonight... An embedded speed max over southern WY will translate east-southeastward to the NE/KS border region by early tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone near the southwest NE/northwest KS border this morning will develop southward across western KS by this evening, as a cold front likewise moves southward in the wake of the upper Great Lakes shortwave trough. Strong surface heating is expected beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and convective inhibition will be largely removed once surface temperatures reach the lower 90s F. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F from the cold front/dryline triple point eastward along the front will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg), in an environment with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. Thus, a mix of supercells and multicell clusters appears probable, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. Steep lapse rates will favor a threat for both isolated very large hail with initial supercells, and isolated significant gusts with either supercells or cell mergers this evening into early tonight. Some upscale growth into one or more MCSs appears likely tonight from northwest MO into northern KS with merging clusters along the cold front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS WELL EXTREME SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from far southern Nebraska across much of northern Kansas with damaging winds and hail. A few severe storms are also possible over southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. ...Southern NE into northeast KS... The air mass continues to destabilize across the region, with ample low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the boundary from eastern CO into northwest KS where temperatures continued to rise into the lower 90s F. Rapid storm development is expected once the cap is completely breached, with additional development likely to follow along the primary east-west boundary over southern NE. Supercells are expected initially with very large hail, with an increasing damaging wind threat as storms bow toward the east/southeast. A more pronounced turn to the southeast is expected later tonight as activity develops into eastern KS, with a continued wind threat. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 1886. ...WI and IL... Outflow from earlier activity has created a relatively stable area from southeast IA into western IL and northeast MO. Given the progressing cold front just west of this area, it is unlikely that much severe activity will occur there. The best chance of a few severe storms, including a supercell or brief tornado, will be over southeast Wisconsin where the best combination of instability and shear exist. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1885. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... Within a belt of broadly cyclonic flow aloft, an embedded shortwave trough/speed max will move over WI/Upper MI this afternoon, driving a surface cold front southeastward across WI/MI. A band of elevated thunderstorms immediately precedes the front across WI as of late morning, and some form of this convection is likely to persist into the afternoon into southeast WI and Lower MI. The degree of surface destabilization prior to frontal passage is the primary concern across WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening, as the stronger forcing for ascent appears likely to overspread northeast WI/northern Lower MI, just northeast of the more substantial destabilization. Vertical shear profiles will favor supercells if sufficient destabilization can occur prior to frontal passage, though storm coverage is also in doubt northeast of the IA cluster and south of the stronger ascent. Farther southwest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms will likely be maintained into early afternoon from southeast IA to northeast MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection. Additional storm development is expected west of this cluster late this afternoon/evening as the surface cold front reaches southern IA/northern MO. The background environment with large buoyancy and marginal deep-layer vertical shear appears to favor multicell clusters and some embedded supercells initially, though back-building as clusters/line segments is most probable along the front this evening into tonight. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern NE/northern KS this afternoon through tonight... An embedded speed max over southern WY will translate east-southeastward to the NE/KS border region by early tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone near the southwest NE/northwest KS border this morning will develop southward across western KS by this evening, as a cold front likewise moves southward in the wake of the upper Great Lakes shortwave trough. Strong surface heating is expected beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and convective inhibition will be largely removed once surface temperatures reach the lower 90s F. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F from the cold front/dryline triple point eastward along the front will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg), in an environment with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. Thus, a mix of supercells and multicell clusters appears probable, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. Steep lapse rates will favor a threat for both isolated very large hail with initial supercells, and isolated significant gusts with either supercells or cell mergers this evening into early tonight. Some upscale growth into one or more MCSs appears likely tonight from northwest MO into northern KS with merging clusters along the cold front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS WELL EXTREME SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from far southern Nebraska across much of northern Kansas with damaging winds and hail. A few severe storms are also possible over southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. ...Southern NE into northeast KS... The air mass continues to destabilize across the region, with ample low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the boundary from eastern CO into northwest KS where temperatures continued to rise into the lower 90s F. Rapid storm development is expected once the cap is completely breached, with additional development likely to follow along the primary east-west boundary over southern NE. Supercells are expected initially with very large hail, with an increasing damaging wind threat as storms bow toward the east/southeast. A more pronounced turn to the southeast is expected later tonight as activity develops into eastern KS, with a continued wind threat. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 1886. ...WI and IL... Outflow from earlier activity has created a relatively stable area from southeast IA into western IL and northeast MO. Given the progressing cold front just west of this area, it is unlikely that much severe activity will occur there. The best chance of a few severe storms, including a supercell or brief tornado, will be over southeast Wisconsin where the best combination of instability and shear exist. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1885. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... Within a belt of broadly cyclonic flow aloft, an embedded shortwave trough/speed max will move over WI/Upper MI this afternoon, driving a surface cold front southeastward across WI/MI. A band of elevated thunderstorms immediately precedes the front across WI as of late morning, and some form of this convection is likely to persist into the afternoon into southeast WI and Lower MI. The degree of surface destabilization prior to frontal passage is the primary concern across WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening, as the stronger forcing for ascent appears likely to overspread northeast WI/northern Lower MI, just northeast of the more substantial destabilization. Vertical shear profiles will favor supercells if sufficient destabilization can occur prior to frontal passage, though storm coverage is also in doubt northeast of the IA cluster and south of the stronger ascent. Farther southwest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms will likely be maintained into early afternoon from southeast IA to northeast MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection. Additional storm development is expected west of this cluster late this afternoon/evening as the surface cold front reaches southern IA/northern MO. The background environment with large buoyancy and marginal deep-layer vertical shear appears to favor multicell clusters and some embedded supercells initially, though back-building as clusters/line segments is most probable along the front this evening into tonight. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern NE/northern KS this afternoon through tonight... An embedded speed max over southern WY will translate east-southeastward to the NE/KS border region by early tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone near the southwest NE/northwest KS border this morning will develop southward across western KS by this evening, as a cold front likewise moves southward in the wake of the upper Great Lakes shortwave trough. Strong surface heating is expected beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and convective inhibition will be largely removed once surface temperatures reach the lower 90s F. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F from the cold front/dryline triple point eastward along the front will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg), in an environment with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. Thus, a mix of supercells and multicell clusters appears probable, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. Steep lapse rates will favor a threat for both isolated very large hail with initial supercells, and isolated significant gusts with either supercells or cell mergers this evening into early tonight. Some upscale growth into one or more MCSs appears likely tonight from northwest MO into northern KS with merging clusters along the cold front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS WELL EXTREME SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from far southern Nebraska across much of northern Kansas with damaging winds and hail. A few severe storms are also possible over southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. ...Southern NE into northeast KS... The air mass continues to destabilize across the region, with ample low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the boundary from eastern CO into northwest KS where temperatures continued to rise into the lower 90s F. Rapid storm development is expected once the cap is completely breached, with additional development likely to follow along the primary east-west boundary over southern NE. Supercells are expected initially with very large hail, with an increasing damaging wind threat as storms bow toward the east/southeast. A more pronounced turn to the southeast is expected later tonight as activity develops into eastern KS, with a continued wind threat. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 1886. ...WI and IL... Outflow from earlier activity has created a relatively stable area from southeast IA into western IL and northeast MO. Given the progressing cold front just west of this area, it is unlikely that much severe activity will occur there. The best chance of a few severe storms, including a supercell or brief tornado, will be over southeast Wisconsin where the best combination of instability and shear exist. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1885. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening... Within a belt of broadly cyclonic flow aloft, an embedded shortwave trough/speed max will move over WI/Upper MI this afternoon, driving a surface cold front southeastward across WI/MI. A band of elevated thunderstorms immediately precedes the front across WI as of late morning, and some form of this convection is likely to persist into the afternoon into southeast WI and Lower MI. The degree of surface destabilization prior to frontal passage is the primary concern across WI/Lower MI this afternoon/evening, as the stronger forcing for ascent appears likely to overspread northeast WI/northern Lower MI, just northeast of the more substantial destabilization. Vertical shear profiles will favor supercells if sufficient destabilization can occur prior to frontal passage, though storm coverage is also in doubt northeast of the IA cluster and south of the stronger ascent. Farther southwest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms will likely be maintained into early afternoon from southeast IA to northeast MO, in a zone of low-level warm advection. Additional storm development is expected west of this cluster late this afternoon/evening as the surface cold front reaches southern IA/northern MO. The background environment with large buoyancy and marginal deep-layer vertical shear appears to favor multicell clusters and some embedded supercells initially, though back-building as clusters/line segments is most probable along the front this evening into tonight. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern NE/northern KS this afternoon through tonight... An embedded speed max over southern WY will translate east-southeastward to the NE/KS border region by early tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone near the southwest NE/northwest KS border this morning will develop southward across western KS by this evening, as a cold front likewise moves southward in the wake of the upper Great Lakes shortwave trough. Strong surface heating is expected beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and convective inhibition will be largely removed once surface temperatures reach the lower 90s F. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F from the cold front/dryline triple point eastward along the front will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg), in an environment with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. Thus, a mix of supercells and multicell clusters appears probable, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. Steep lapse rates will favor a threat for both isolated very large hail with initial supercells, and isolated significant gusts with either supercells or cell mergers this evening into early tonight. Some upscale growth into one or more MCSs appears likely tonight from northwest MO into northern KS with merging clusters along the cold front. Read more

MD 1886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska...northwestern Kansas...and far eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291944Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly after around 21Z or so, though convective trends are being monitored for a potentially earlier initiation. A WW issuance will probably be needed around the 21Z timeframe. DISCUSSION...Latest observations and objective analyses indicate the presence of a weak surface low near the KS/NE/CO border area, with a slowly moving surface boundary located just north of the KS/NE state line. Full insolation was occurring along this boundary and southward across the warm sector beneath very steep (8.5C/km) mid-level lapse rates, with point forecast soundings indicating relatively weak inhibition and strong to extreme instability (4000-5000 J/kg MUCAPE) amidst 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough was located across southern Wyoming and vicinity and approaching the discussion area. Lift associated with this wave and insolation was contributing to a recent increase in cumulus across east-central Colorado and just north of the boundary across southwestern Nebraska. As the shortwave trough approaches the discussion area, sustained surface convergence near the boundary and cooling aloft will remove inhibition and result in scattered thunderstorm development. Vertically veering and strengthening flow will promote some organization in to loosely organized clusters over time - especially as cold pools merge and mature. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out especially along the surface boundary where easterly surface flow will enhance low-level vorticity. Storms should gradually grow upscale into one or two convective complexes and migrate east-southeastward across the discussion area. Large hail and severe wind (perhaps significant) will be the main threats with this activity. Given the forecast scenario, a WW issuance will probably be needed by 21Z or so and will be coordinated with affected local forecast offices. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41110198 41330107 41059967 40289917 39089919 38359954 38220067 38400152 38970196 39760207 40570207 41110198 Read more

The museum fire is 100% contained and in "Patrol Status" with one engine

MD 1885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern Wisconsin into western/northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291850Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across southeast Wisconsin by 3-4 PM CDT, with increasing thunderstorm activity possible across Lake Michigan into Lower Michigan by 6-7 PM EDT. It remains unclear whether a severe weather watch will be needed, due to a combination of uncertain storm coverage and intensity, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A vigorous northwesterly mid-level jet (50-70+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to dig into and through portions of the Upper Midwest this afternoon. As it does, strongest associated forcing for ascent may remain near/north of the international border, but southwesterly low-level flow is forecast to strengthen (to 30-40 kt at 850 mb) ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front, across southeastern Wisconsin through western/northern Lower Michigan between now and 21-23Z. This will allow for substantive boundary layer warming and moistening within pre-frontal surface troughing, which may gradually become supportive of CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg as far east as Lower Michigan. Mixed-layer CAPE already appears on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg across southwestern through central Wisconsin, where latest objective analysis suggests that inhibition for boundary layer parcels is beginning to weaken. Although this is south of the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent, isolated to widely scattered intensifying thunderstorm development appears possible near/north and east of the Madison and Oshkosh WI vicinities during the next few hours. In the presence of strong deep layer and low-level shear, this may include an isolated supercell or two which could pose a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Thereafter, models suggest that forcing for ascent could increase near or just ahead of the front, across Lake Michigan into western and northern lower Michigan. It appears that this will be accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development. Severe weather potential will largely be dependent on the extent of the preceding boundary layer destabilization, which remains a bit uncertain at the present time. However, stronger activity probably will still pose at least some severe wind and hail threat by early evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 44798679 45698491 44818346 43728487 42538737 42858894 43798918 44798679 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/ ...Synopsis... Early in the D2/Friday period, the upper-level ridge across the West will be somewhat less amplified, causing flow to be more zonal. This should limit influx of monsoonal moisture into the Great Basin and central Rockies. With drier air moving in, potential for thunderstorm development appears much more limited than the past several days. Some lingering moisture around the periphery of the ridge may give rise to very isolated convection from the Bitterroot Range into western portions of the central Rockies. However, development of storms is questionable given an expected increase in temperatures aloft. Given how uncertain lightning over dry fuels currently is, no categorical dry thunder areas will be introduced. Locally elevated conditions are probable during the afternoon across southern Idaho and southern Wyoming. Lack of fuels as well as weak upper-level support preclude introducing highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 29 17:50:06 UTC 2019.