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More wildlife was making its way into local neighborhoods for the food and water, according to local Texas game wardens. A bobcat was seen on a trail cam in the backyard of a Kings Crossing neighborhood on Corpus Christi’s South Side. People were encouraged to put out water for wildlife. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 13, 2022

The Skates Fire is located 13 miles northeast of Silver City on the Gila National Forest. Signal Peak Lookout reported the fire Friday at 4:11 p.m. There are no evacuations currently associated with the

At the end of May, the beef cow slaughter for the year-to-date was 15% higher compared to last year. Range and pasture conditions nationally remained at the worst level ever for this time of year, although drought has eased in some areas, allowing for pasture conditions to improve. Cooler temperatures in northern areas, along with skimpy fertilizer use, were contributing to delayed and reduced pasture and hay production. In recent weeks, the slaughter data compared to last year has been increasing as limited pasture and hay production has become more apparent. Drought in 2021 resulted in a 9% increase in the beef cow slaughter, compared to the previous year, and a net culling of 11.6%. Drought hastened herd liquidation in 2021, leading to a 2.33% reduction in the beef cow herd in 2021. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), June 13, 2022

The Cerro Bandera Fire is burning on private land within the National Park Service El Malpais National Monument boundaries near Highway 53 in Cibola County. The fire was first reported by staff at the Cibola National Forest's Oso Ridge Lookout on June 9, 2022 at approximately 11:00 a.m. The fire is burning in dry grass and pinon-juniper type fuels. Numerous personnel from the Forestry Division, Cibola County, USDA Forest Service, and National Parks Service are on the scene with support from firefighting aircraft. The cause of the fire is under investigation. IR flight was run last night and our current acreage is 939 acres. No increase of acres from yesterdays mapped acres. At this time we are still showing 25% containment, and forward progress has been stopped.Suppression efforts throughout the fire will continue with mop up and securing of fire

The Double Fire was reported at 4:13 p.m. on June 12. It is predicted that the Double Fire and Haywire Fire, a fire that originated 7.5 miles northwest of Doney Park, will merge.Current resources: Part of the Haywire Fire resources responding.Closures: The Coconino National Forest has closed nearly the entire northern portion of the forest from Interstate 40 toward the north. View the Closure Order and map here. Additionally, Arizona Department of Transportation has closed a portion of Highway 89, which restricts vehicles from traveling north and south in the area of the fire. Check www.az511.com for status

The City of Alice entered stage 1 of its drought contingency plan on June 10 as the level of Lake Corpus Christi dropped below 88 feet. The public is asked to voluntarily conserve 10%. Two other communities, Mathis and Beeville, also draw water from Lake Corpus Christi. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 12, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 13 14:09:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA...FAR SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Southern MN...North-Central/Northeast IA...Far Southwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131406Z - 131600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over western NE, with a warm front extending northeastward from this low into northwest IA and then back southwestward through central and southeast IA into central IL. A low-level jet exists south of this warm front across the southern and central Plains, contributing to strong warm-air advection across this frontal zone. Regional 12Z soundings reveal a very moist low-level air mass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in very strong buoyancy. This buoyancy in tandem with the warm-air advection is supporting the development of robust thunderstorms from southern MN into north-central/northeast IA. Vertical shear is moderate throughout the region, with the overall environment supportive of supercells capable of large hail. Low-level stability and current storm motion suggest these storms are currently elevated, although some transition to a more surface-based character is possible over the next few hours as the air mass heats. Until then, large hail will be the primary severe hazards. As the storms become more surface-based, the primary severe threat will transition to strong wind gusts. Overall coverage of severe remains uncertain, particularly in the near-term, with additional uncertainty regarding the when/if storms will become more surface-based. Convective trends are being monitored closely for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44399416 44319266 44039171 43139072 42159054 41699086 41679169 42349313 42999448 43299565 43669602 44159569 44399416 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday afternoon/evening. ...Upper MS into Great Lakes region... A broad upper ridge remains over the southern US today, with the primary band of westerlies extending from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region. Early morning model guidance suggests a shortwave trough and associated 40-50 knot midlevel speed max is currently over IA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this feature, along with a couple of MCVs noted in radar imagery. Ahead of this shortwave trough, a warm front is lifting northward across IA/IL/IN/OH. Dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating to the south of the front will yield high CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg later today. Present indications are that either remnants of the ongoing convection over IA/MN or new storms will intensify by early afternoon over southern WI/northern IL and rapidly become severe. These storms will track along the retreating baroclinic zone across Lake MI and into portions of Lower MI, and northern IN/OH during the afternoon. It appears possible that a long-lived bowing MCS could result in a swath of considerable wind damage along this corridor. However, recent CAM solutions continue to vary on the details of the track. Have added an ENH area to address this threat. The ENH may need to be extended farther east in later outlooks as clarity in the evolution of the MCS becomes greater. Along with the damaging wind risk, the strongest cells may produce large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Dakotas... A surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern WY this afternoon while a cold front moves across the northern Rockies and high Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by early evening over western SD/ND and track northeastward. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for supercell storms capable of all hazards over portions of ND. Farther south, models suggest that storms that form will be behind the cold front, with hail being the main concern. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/13/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. While recent satellite-derived winds
indicate the low does not yet have a well-defined center,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
A trough of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Nicaragua and is producing a disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms. Some additional development of
this system is possible over the next few days as long as it remains
offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

To support Lake Powell, the Bureau of Reclamation will release 500,000 acre-feet of water this year from the Flaming Gorge Reservoir upstream to flow into Lake Powell. Another 480,000 acre-feet of water will also be kept in Lake Powell rather than released to Lake Mead. These two measures will keep 980,000 acre-feet in Lake Powell and raise the water level by 16 feet, allowing hydropower production to continue. Lakes Powell and Mead are both at record lows. Reuters (New York), May 3, 2022 Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming will release 500,000 acre-feet of water under a new Drought Operations Plan to bolster alarmingly low water levels at Lake Powell. The plan, approved April 21 by the Upper Colorado River Commission, does not require any water to be released from Blue Mesa near Gunnison, but also does not eliminate the possibility. The 2022 Drought Operations Plan, agreed to by the four Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah must still be approved by the secretary of the interior. The Colorado Sun (Denver, Colo.), April 21, 2022

 Crews re-engaged fire.  Grounds resources worked fire perimeter.  Aviation resources made retardant drops and water drops.  Fire 107 mapped acres and 100

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 12 15:17:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1128 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri and central/southern Illinois and Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121515Z - 121715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...It currently appears most probable that ongoing strong thunderstorm development will tend to wane through midday. However, until it does, occasional severe hail and locally strong surface gusts will remain possible. DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms slowly approaching the Interstate 70 corridor might be aided by forcing associated with a subtle short wave impulse progressing around the northeastern of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the southern Great Plains. This is also near and east of the plume of much warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air spreading east of the Great Plains. As the weak impulse progresses into the lower Ohio through this afternoon, and much more prominent upstream mid-level troughing progresses inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air will continue to spread east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. Based on forecast soundings, among other model output, it appears that this may occur faster than any eastward advection of the higher boundary-layer moisture content (supportive of the large CAPE), which may remain focused near/west of the Mississippi Valley, closer to deeper surface troughing across the Great Plains. Given expected trends for increasing mid-level inhibition and weakening supporting forcing for ascent, it remains unclear how much longer stronger thunderstorm development supportive of severe hail and strong surface gusts will be maintained. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39538997 40098916 40758824 40198608 39708497 38958481 38328743 37938929 38209032 38759050 39538997 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF A LARGE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern and central Plains, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A few tornadoes could occur across the northern High Plains region. Isolated severe may also be noted across the lower Ohio Valley and parts of the southern middle Atlantic. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Plains... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Despite the axis of a broad upper ridge extending from NM into CO/WY, considerable mid-level moisture is evident in water vapor imagery along this corridor. Large scale forcing will be weak over the central/northern Rockies, but model guidance is in strong agreement that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop from northeast CO into eastern WY/MT. These storms will build eastward during the evening into the Dakotas/NE/KS. Supercell storm structures are expected, capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are possible as well. Storms may persist the longest over the northern Plains, with activity spreading into western MN overnight. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic... Latest surface analysis shows a weak warm front extending from northeast MO into parts of IL/IN/OH. Dewpoints along and south of the boundary range from the 50s over OH to the 70s over MO. Pockets of daytime heating along this corridor, coupled with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will likely be sufficient for a few thunderstorms to develop and track rather quickly eastward. While confidence in the details of the convective evolution are low, there are two areas where the risk seems high enough to maintain SLGT risk. The first area of concern is over portions of VA/NC. A relatively moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today in this region. Morning clouds are expected to give way to afternoon heating/destabilization and the development of at least isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization and perhaps a supercell or two. Locally damaging winds are the main threat through the early evening. Another area of concern is over parts of MO/IL/IN/KY. Hot and humid conditions will result in a very unstable air mass with afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but a capping inversion limits confidence in convective initiation. Winds aloft are favorable in this region for rotating and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Model guidance varies considerably regarding the timing and placement of storms today and tonight, but given the conditional risk, will maintain the ongoing SLGT risk with few changes. ...KS/MO/AR/TN... A cluster of thunderstorms had developed in the pre-dawn hours over parts of NE. This activity is poorly handled in the model guidance. Given the favorable downstream air mass and rapid expansion on IR satellite imagery, there is some concern that this cluster will persist and track across northeast KS into MO. Therefore have expanded the SLGT risk to areas ahead of the storms. Please see MCD #1127 for further details. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/12/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico is producing a more concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next few days
south or southwest off the coast of Central America. Subsequent
gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 11 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 11 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES... CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri Valley and vicinity. ...IA/NE/MO/KS... A broad upper ridge is centered over the four-corners region today, with the belt of stronger westerlies extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Midwest. A cold front currently over the Dakotas will sag southeastward into eastern NE and northern IA by mid-afternoon, where a very warm and humid air mass will be present. Afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500 J/kg are expected, resulting in scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the front. Activity will track southward into western MO and eastern KS during the evening before weakening after dark. Initial storms over NE/IA will likely be supercellular with concerns for very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms track southward, upscale organization into a bowing MCS is expected with an increasing risk of wind damage. ...MT/SD... Strong westerly flow aloft will overlay the northern Plains today, while a weak cold front sags southward across MT. Pockets of daytime heating will lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80s from southern MT into SD, with dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the mountains of western MT and develop/move eastward along the front during the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest only marginal CAPE will develop, but given the strong winds aloft and considerable vertical shear, a few supercell storms are expected capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may be rather isolated, but may persist much of the evening and track quickly eastward into western/central SD. ..Hart.. 06/11/2022 Read more