Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Otis,
which has dissipated over southern Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure is located a little over one hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
the low moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for some slow development of this system during the next
several days while the low meanders over the southwestern East
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Residents of Franklin were urged to conserve water as rainfall has been below normal in the past few months, according to the Franklin Water Management Department. WSMV (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 25, 2023

The low level of the Mississippi River at Vicksburg had ships running aground. To keep the channel usable, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers had its dredge ship “Jadwin” moving silt to keep the mouth of the Yazoo Diversion Canal open in Vicksburg. Some locations have required dredging multiple times this season as sandbars were forming in places that were usually passable for big ships. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 25, 2023

Plenty of trees died in the Austin area with drought stress and disease shortening their lifespan. Pecan trees usually live around 200 years, but drought stress and disease ended the trees’ lives prematurely. KUT News (Austin, Texas), Oct 25, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 20:32:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252031 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF OTIS WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS... 35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252031 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Otis Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High-resolution visible satellite imagery and synoptic observations indicate that the surface circulation of Otis has dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Otis will continue to produce locally heavy rains and flooding through Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwestern and south-central Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTIS 12H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252031 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 100.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Otis Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...OTIS DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 100.8W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Otis were located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 100.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Otis are expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally as high as 6) through Thursday across Guerrero, Mexico, and Morelos. A rainfall total of 9 inches was already observed at Cigua de Benitez in the state of Guerrero. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...OTIS DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 the center of Otis was located near 19.1, -100.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

A burn ban took effect for Rutherford County and Murfreesboro on Oct. 25 until further notice, due to drought. All open burning was prohibited. WGNS 1450-AM & 101.9 100.5-FM (Murfreesboro, Tenn.), Oct 25, 2023

Dry conditions in Limestone County were good for harvesting cotton, which turned out well since rain hasn’t fallen on it. The cotton was loose in the bur and picked well. Some cattle farmers, however, need the fall grazing and would like to plant ryegrass, so rain would be beneficial for them. The area south of Birmingham needed rain and hasn’t really had much since the Fourth of July. WHNT 19 News (Huntsville, Ala.), Oct 24, 2023

Ongoing drought conditions in the Kansas River basin will lead the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to reduce flows from the reservoirs Milford, Tuttle Creek and Perry, resulting in lower flows at De Soto and Topeka, starting November 1, 2023. Tuttle Creek Reservoir fell below its target elevation of 1,070 feet on Oct. 18 and will remain there, apart from significant rainfall. Flow targets will be met to maintain water quality on the Kansas River. US Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, Oct 25, 2023

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES ONSHORE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 the center of Otis was located near 16.1, -99.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 927 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 25 03:14:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250311Z - 250545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some hail and locally strong wind gusts may accompany an evolving squall line spreading east of the New Mexico/Texas state border, and northeast/east of the Pecos valley through 1-2 AM CDT. It still appears that a severe weather watch will not be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an evolving squall line, generally focused on the leading edge of lower/mid-tropospheric cooling slowly advancing toward the Texas South Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity. Modest strengthening of ambient southerly low-level flow (including to 30+ kt around 850 mb) is contributing to strengthening easterly/southeasterly inflow of more moist air advecting into the high plains. Beneath a remnant plume of steeper lapse rates, associated instability probably will maintain, or perhaps support some further intensification of, the squall line late this evening into the overnight hours. As this occurs, it is possible that channels of strengthening rear inflow may continue to develop, accompanied by potential for occasional locally strong wind gusts reaching the surface. However, based on the output convection allowing guidance, including the HRRR, and latest RAP/NAM forecast soundings, it still appears that peak gusts will remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34510238 34290074 32200141 30800300 31540341 32930273 34510238 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 02:51:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250250 TCDEP3 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage expected. 2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake