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Corn in western Kentucky has gray, folded leaves as just 50% to 75% of normal rain has fallen in the past 30 days. The heat and low rainfall may be reducing yields. Louisville Courier Journal (Ky.), June 23, 2022

The fire was initially reported on the 10th of June at 4:28 PM. As of June 18th, the fire was estimated to be 3,704 acres and is burning in the Wallow Fire burn scar near Fish Creek and Forest Service Road 25B, approximately 20 miles SW of Alpine, AZ. The Fish Fire is burning mixed conifer, dead and down trees, and abundant standing snags. A dry lightning storm was occurring in the area at the time, and a lightning strike has been determined to be the cause. Fire activity is flanking and backing through heavy burn scar and grass. The fire is being managed through confine and contain strategies. A contain strategy is a wildfire response strategy of restricting a wildfire to a defined area, primarily using natural barriers that are expected to restrict the spread of the wildfire under the prevailing and forecasted weather conditions. There may be additional suppression activities, such as burnout and line construction, in order to confine the fire to the containment boundary. Due to...

 Crew worked through the night to contain fire.  Fire acres mapped at 370 acres and 100% contained.  Will continue to monitor and patrol due to fire weather and fuels conditions continue to deteriorate due to

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF KS/NE/SD/MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the central Great Plains and the central portions of Minnesota to South Dakota, mainly this evening. ...Northern KS/southern NE... Low-level warm theta-e advection has maintained a swath of elevated convection centered on northeast to east-central KS, just northeast of the surface warm front. To the south and west of this activity, robust boundary-layer heating is underway, likely increasing baroclinicity across the front by late afternoon. A low-amplitude mid-level perturbation over the southern Rockies should be favorably timed to aid in scattered high-based convection developing along the lee trough in western KS to its intersection with the warm front near southwest NE. While morning guidance varies substantially with the overall thermodynamic environment, the 12Z HRW-NSSL/ARW and NAM-Nest all suggest potential for at least a couple long-lived supercells slowly spreading east-southeast from southwest NE across northern KS. Midlevel flow will not be strong, although speed shear into the upper levels will favor large hail growth. Hodographs will depend on the degree of low-level easterly flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front, which guidance also varies substantially on. Even so, an increase in a nocturnal southerly low-level jet will likely assist in potential for a small MCS this evening. Given the conditionally favorable setup, potential for sig hail and wind is apparent in addition to a tornadic supercell or two. ...Central portions of MN/SD... A weak surface trough, associated with a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over northern ON, will drift southeast across northeast to west-central MN, with a separate surface trough extending north from western KS/NE into central SD. An increase in low-level moisture from the south and southwest, combined with strong daytime heating and modest convergence along the troughs, should support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon to early evening. While model moisture forecasts are likely overdone, and weak large-scale forcing for ascent limits confidence, steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear will support conditional potential for a few supercells and multicell clustering. Most morning CAM guidance suggests a narrow corridor of cat 2/SLGT-risk caliber storms should form with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. ...Central/eastern MT... A mid-level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary jet crossing northern MT through tonight. Associated surface cold front will push east and provide a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across central to eastern MT during the late afternoon and evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited with boundary-layer dew points in the 40s, yielding MLCAPE to only around 500 J/kg. Still, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and some increase in mid-level flow will support the threat for isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Eastern NV/western UT... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Sierra NV will gradually progress east across parts of NV into western UT through tonight. Moderate forcing for ascent ahead of this trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will support scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Limited boundary-layer moisture will result in only meager MLCAPE and effective bulk shear will remain weak. But deeply mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support a threat for isolated severe gusts. ..Grams/Weinman.. 06/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 15:23:59 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 12(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 22(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 106.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Celia is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ...Northern KS/southern NE this afternoon through tonight... Weak perturbations emanating from the monsoonal moisture plume will drift eastward across the central Plains, around the northern periphery of the southern Plains closed high aloft. At the surface, a warm front will move slowly northward across KS, to the east of a lee cyclone near the CO/KS border by this evening. A corridor of 68-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the vicinity of the warm front across KS/NE, with strong surface heating and deep mixing expected to the southwest of the warm front across western KS. The net result should be relatively weak convective inhibition and the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along the warm front close to the KS/NE border, with the potential for elevated storm development persisting overnight on the nose of a 30+ kt low-level jet. There is some uncertainty regarding the role/persistence of morning clouds/convection in late afternoon storm development, though there should be at least some clearing along the northwest KS/southwest NE border, where storm development is more probable by 22-00z. Midlevel flow will not be strong (though 50 kt flow is expected above the 300 mb level), so low-midlevel hodograph length will depend on the degree of low-level easterly low-level flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front. A few supercells will be possible with large hail and damaging gusts, and the tornado threat will depend on getting storms into the areas of backed low-level flow and richer low-level moisture. Otherwise, storms may coalesce into clusters overnight, with a continuing threat for isolated hail/wind. ...Northeast SD into MN this evening into tonight... A weak surface trough, associated with a shortwave trough over western ON, will move southeastward into northeast SD and central/northern MN by late afternoon. An increase in low-level moisture from the south during the day, combined with daytime heating and convergence along the trough, could support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening along the surface trough. The specific degree of low-level moistening and resultant increases in CAPE are a bit uncertain (some model guidance appears to be a bit high with the 68+ dewpoints by evening), and storm coverage is in question given the moisture and weak forcing for ascent. Wind profiles appear to be on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms. Given these factors, will maintain Marginal risk for the conditional threat. ...Central MT this afternoon/evening... A midlevel level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary midlevel jet crossing northern MT through tonight. The midlevel low will be accompanied by a surface cold front, which will provide a focus for thunderstorm development across central MT this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited across MT (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 40s with daytime heating/mixing), which will likewise limit buoyancy. Still, inverted-v profiles and some increase in midlevel flow will support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from late afternoon into this evening. ...Eastern NV/western UT this afternoon/evening... A weak closed low over central CA will evolve into an open wave and eject east-northeastward over NV/UT through tonight. Weak ascent downstream from the midlevel trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will result in weak buoyancy and inverted-v profiles favorable for high-based thunderstorm development. A modest increase in midlevel flow and the steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support the threat for isolated severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/23/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ...Northern KS/southern NE this afternoon through tonight... Weak perturbations emanating from the monsoonal moisture plume will drift eastward across the central Plains, around the northern periphery of the southern Plains closed high aloft. At the surface, a warm front will move slowly northward across KS, to the east of a lee cyclone near the CO/KS border by this evening. A corridor of 68-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the vicinity of the warm front across KS/NE, with strong surface heating and deep mixing expected to the southwest of the warm front across western KS. The net result should be relatively weak convective inhibition and the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along the warm front close to the KS/NE border, with the potential for elevated storm development persisting overnight on the nose of a 30+ kt low-level jet. There is some uncertainty regarding the role/persistence of morning clouds/convection in late afternoon storm development, though there should be at least some clearing along the northwest KS/southwest NE border, where storm development is more probable by 22-00z. Midlevel flow will not be strong (though 50 kt flow is expected above the 300 mb level), so low-midlevel hodograph length will depend on the degree of low-level easterly low-level flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front. A few supercells will be possible with large hail and damaging gusts, and the tornado threat will depend on getting storms into the areas of backed low-level flow and richer low-level moisture. Otherwise, storms may coalesce into clusters overnight, with a continuing threat for isolated hail/wind. ...Northeast SD into MN this evening into tonight... A weak surface trough, associated with a shortwave trough over western ON, will move southeastward into northeast SD and central/northern MN by late afternoon. An increase in low-level moisture from the south during the day, combined with daytime heating and convergence along the trough, could support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening along the surface trough. The specific degree of low-level moistening and resultant increases in CAPE are a bit uncertain (some model guidance appears to be a bit high with the 68+ dewpoints by evening), and storm coverage is in question given the moisture and weak forcing for ascent. Wind profiles appear to be on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms. Given these factors, will maintain Marginal risk for the conditional threat. ...Central MT this afternoon/evening... A midlevel level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary midlevel jet crossing northern MT through tonight. The midlevel low will be accompanied by a surface cold front, which will provide a focus for thunderstorm development across central MT this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited across MT (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 40s with daytime heating/mixing), which will likewise limit buoyancy. Still, inverted-v profiles and some increase in midlevel flow will support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from late afternoon into this evening. ...Eastern NV/western UT this afternoon/evening... A weak closed low over central CA will evolve into an open wave and eject east-northeastward over NV/UT through tonight. Weak ascent downstream from the midlevel trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will result in weak buoyancy and inverted-v profiles favorable for high-based thunderstorm development. A modest increase in midlevel flow and the steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support the threat for isolated severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/23/2022 Read more

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Houston residents were asked to conserve water as of June 21 due to moderate to severe drought in the region. KHOU (Houston, Texas), June 22, 2022

 The Contact Creek Fire (#151), burning 40 miles southeast of King Salmon, started on May 29, 2022. The fire continues to be monitored by National Park Service and Division of Forestry personnel as it burns in a limited management area in Katmai National Park & Preserve. The fire is burning 17 miles from the nearest native allotment. Crews wrapped a Remote Automated Weather System (RAWS) in protective structure wrap to reduce the impacts of the fire if it should it reach the weather system.Gathered from aerial observations on June 3rd, roughly 70% of the fire perimeter is inactive with creeks 6-10 feet wide halting growth of the fire. The entire north and northeast sections of the fire perimeter look to be held up by creeks of this size, and areas in the perimeter still burning are expected to hit streams of similar size within the next few