Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2023 15:02:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2023 15:23:06 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241502 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 ...DON NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.6N 40.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Don was located near latitude 47.6 North, longitude 40.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Don should continue to gradually weaken, before dissipating tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

...DON NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 the center of Don was located near 47.6, -40.7 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 147 WTNT45 KNHC 241456 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 Satellite imagery shows that Don lacks sufficient deep convection to classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and it is now post tropical. The initial wind speed remains at 40 kt for this advisory, based on a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass. Don should slowly weaken over the next day or so while moving over cold waters and within high vertical wind shear. The system is moving east-northeastward at about 17 kt, and this general motion will likely to continue until Don dissipates in about a day. Most of the global guidance has post-tropical Don opening up into a trough and becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north Atlantic tomorrow. Very few changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record for the month, just behind Emily of 2005. This is the last advisory on Don. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSDAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 47.6N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/0000Z 48.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 241456 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241455 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 40.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 40.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.1N 36.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.6N 40.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 23 22:01:02 UTC 2023.

MD 1686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Areas affected...Portions of MO into west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232158Z - 240030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated risk for severe hail and damaging winds may continue into the early evening. Watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon along a weak surface trough across parts of northern/eastern MO as a weak mid-level disturbance cresting the upper ridge continues southeastward across the upper/mid MS Valley. The airmass downstream of this activity into central MO and west-central IL is moderately unstable, with MLCAPE generally 2000-2500 J/kg. But, deep-layer shear remains marginal, around 20-25 kt, given fairly modest mid/upper-level northwesterly flow. Still, occasional updraft organization has been noted with the strongest cores, with a recent 1 inch severe hail report. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may remain a threat with this convection as it spreads slowly southward over the next couple of hours. Given the weak shear, watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39779333 39559212 39599083 39078997 38249005 37969152 38149303 38699365 39379363 39789333 39779333 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2023 20:32:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2023 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232031 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 Tropical Storm Don is moving northeastward this afternoon over the North Atlantic's cooler sea surface temperatures, and deep convection is starting to wane. The convective band from earlier this morning has become more fragmented and not as well defined. Visible satellite and a microwave AMSR2 pass earlier however, still showed that Don has a compact low-level center, and a scatterometer ASCAT-B pass showed winds of 48-50 kt in the southeast quadrant. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have also started to trend downward with this advisory cycle. Given the ASCAT-B pass and the subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 50 kt. Don is starting to lose its overall convective pattern and should begin to rapidly weaken tonight and tomorrow. Available global model guidance suggest that Don should lose any remaining deep convection within the next 18 to 24 hours and become a post-tropical cyclone at that time. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast, with Don dissipating in about 48 hours. The system is moving to the northeast at 15 kt. Don will continue to move to the northeast, with a slight increase in forward speed the remainder of today, before turning to the east-northeast tomorrow due to the steering flow around the northern side of the subtropical ridge. Guidance remains tightly clustered, and there was very little change to the forecast this cycle. The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminary, Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5 longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 45.2N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 46.6N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0600Z 48.8N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 232030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 232030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 ...DON A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.2N 46.5W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was located near latitude 45.2 North, longitude 46.5 West. Don is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). The storm will continue to move to the northeast the rest of today, before turning east-northeastward tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Don is likely to lose tropical characteristics tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

...DON A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 23 the center of Don was located near 45.2, -46.5 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 232030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 46.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 46.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 48.8N 34.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.2N 46.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN SC AND WESTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will remain possible late this afternoon and evening, at least on an isolated basis, across the Southeast States as well as the northern/central Plains and Ozarks. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of southwest SD and western NE, based on latest short-term guidance, destabilization trends, and increasing cumulus near the Black Hills. The Marginal Risk has been trimmed in the wake of earlier convection across parts of FL and GA. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023/ ...Carolinas... Mostly sunny skies are present today from much of GA across the Carolinas. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, along with rather strong mid/upper level winds. 12z CAM solutions show a more robust signal for higher thunderstorm coverage across parts of northern SC into central NC. Therefore have opted to add a SLGT risk for parts of SC/NC for this afternoon and evening. ...FL... A large but relatively disorganized MCS is moving across the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern FL. Strong heating ahead of this system will lead to occasional intense storms along the leading edge of the combined outflow. Forecast soundings show rather limited deep-layer shear and lapse rates, suggesting that activity will not be very organized or long-lived. However, locally gusty/damaging winds could occur. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large area of moderate/strong instability and fast northwest flow aloft lies across much of the northern and central Plains today. Forecast soundings across the region from the eastern Dakotas into KS/MO show sufficient CAPE/shear for a conditional risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, forcing is weak and confidence in where afternoon convective initiation will occur is low. Therefore will maintain a broad MRGL risk. The strongest signal in 12z models appears to extend from south-central NE across central/eastern KS into west-central MO. This and other corridors will be monitored through the afternoon for a potential upgrade. ...AZ... Easterly flow aloft today will again pose some risk of convection moving off the higher terrain of eastern/northern AZ into higher population areas. Damaging winds would be the main concern. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR AND WESTERN ID... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN EASTERN WA AND OR... ...Northern Great Basin... Widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected D2/Monday ahead of the advancing trough. Updated fuels information across northwest NV lends higher confidence to critical conditions in lower elevations. The Critical area was expanded south and westward to better align with 25+ mph surface winds and low afternoon humidity. ...Columbia Basin and northern Rockies... As strong mid-level flow aligns with dry and warm surface conditions across portions of eastern WA and OR, westerly winds of 20-25 mph and higher gusts are expected over dry fuels. Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected to support the potential for rapid fire spread. A few showers and high-based thunderstorms are also possible later in the evening along and behind the cold front from far eastern WA into portions of western MT and the ID Panhandle. While not overly likely, any storms that do form may pose a risk for dry lightning strikes within modestly receptive fuels. please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will remain in place across the Four Corners region as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow/Monday. Monsoonal moisture trapped beneath the mid-level ridge will encourage another day of scattered dry and wet thunderstorms across the Intermountain West. Given patchy, marginally receptive fuels, a couple of new fire starts are possible, resulting in localized wildfire-spread potential. The relatively greater potential for wildfire spread will exist across the Pacific Northwest as the passage of a mid-level trough will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions. To the lee of the Cascades and northern Sierra, RH will dip below 15 percent by afternoon peak heating, with surface westerly winds sustaining over 20 mph in spots. The most likely region to see widespread 20+ mph wind speeds will be southeast Oregon into far northwest Nevada and far southwest Idaho, where Critical highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images show that there has been little change in the
organization of the small area of low pressure located about 850
miles east of the Windward Islands. Although environmental
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for some
gradual development, this system could still become a tropical
depression during the next few days while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of the Midwest, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain anchored over the southern/central Rockies on Monday, as a mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant trough move into the Pacific Northwest, and a broad upper trough remains over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be draped from somewhere near the Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop over the central Plains, while another weak surface low/trough will move eastward across the OH Valley vicinity. ...Northeast... A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes toward northern New England on Monday. Modest low-level moisture and diurnal heating will support MLCAPE of 750-1500 by late morning into the afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central PA into parts of NY/VT, immediately in advance of the shortwave. Southwesterly midlevel flow associated with the upper trough will support effective shear generally in the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for a few modestly organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind and possibly some hail. ...OH Valley and vicinity... Most guidance suggests a weak surface low/trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the OH Valley on Monday. This may aid in diurnal thunderstorm development within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Storm coverage and location remain rather uncertain, but effective shear of 20-30 kt within a weak northwesterly flow regime could support a few stronger multicells and clusters capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind. ...Mid/upper MS Valley and Midwest... A low-predictability northwest-flow regime will remain in place from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and mid/upper MS Valley on Monday. The details of storm development, coverage, and timing remain uncertain, but the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells and organized clusters wherever notable diurnal destabilization can occur. Morning convection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of eastern NE/KS into western IA/MS, in association with a southwesterly low-level jet. A localized severe hail/wind threat cannot be ruled out with the stronger morning storms. Outflow and potential MCV development related to morning convection may support redevelopment farther south toward the Ozarks Monday afternoon/evening, with some continued potential for isolated severe hail/wind with the strongest storms. Diurnal development will also be possible farther north into parts of MN/WI, within a weak but persistent low-level warm advection regime. If storms can mature in this area, isolated southeast-moving supercells will be possible. Nocturnal convection may develop late Monday night as the low-level jet increases, potentially posing an isolated severe risk into parts of IA/MO. ...Northern UT into the northern Rockies... High-based convection is expected Monday afternoon/evening in association with a shortwave trough moving around the periphery of the upper ridge. Localized severe gusts will be possible from northern UT into parts of the northern Rockies, though with limited instability, storm intensity and organization remains uncertain at this time. Severe-wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in more organized storm development. ..Dean.. 07/23/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW GPT TO 30 W MOB TO 20 ENE MOB TO 25 NW PNS TO 15 NNE PNS TO 20 ENE PNS TO 15 WSW PFN TO 25 SSW TLH TO 30 SSE TLH TO 20 W CTY. ..BENTLEY..07/22/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAX...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-222340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-037-045-067-113-123-222340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF LAFAYETTE SANTA ROSA TAYLOR MSC039-047-059-222340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE HARRISON JACKSON Read more