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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more