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MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...far southeastern Wyoming...far southwestern Nebraska...northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262037Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential increasing into the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Front Range and areas just west and south of the Denver Metro. Dew points within this region are generally in the mid 40s to 50s. High-based convection is expected to gradually shift into the plains through the evening, where a more moist and unstable air mass is available. This may lead to a more organized severe threat later for northeastern Colorado/far southeastern Wyoming persisting into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas later this evening. The main threats would be damaging winds, given "inverted V" thermodynamic profiles. Hodographs are generally straight with deep layer shear around 40 kts which may support a few isolated instances of large hail early on. Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance over the next few hours. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39530518 40060541 40500555 40700557 40990554 41170528 41290472 41330402 41340345 41310280 41250216 41110177 40910133 40600097 40120067 39790057 39460060 39420062 38960088 38700117 38670145 38620178 38600312 38540348 38520383 38530407 38630430 38800463 38960485 39530518 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible this afternoon and evening for parts of the southern Great Lakes, along with occasional large hail. Severe gusts also are possible over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary changes to the ongoing forecast were to reduce wind probabilities in the wake of convection, trim severe probabilities behind the shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest along with minor changes to the general thunderstorm area. The remainder of forecast remains on track with additional thunderstorm development possible in the southern Great Lakes region as the low-level jet intensifies later today/tonight. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ ...Lower MI and Vicinity... Multiple strong/severe MCSs are ongoing this morning over western Lower MI, Lake MI, and southern WI. Two lead bowing clusters of convection over western Lower MI will likely continue to track quickly eastward today into a progressively more unstable air mass. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and relatively strong heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but rather strong winds aloft and mesoscale organization of these clusters will help to pose a risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern Lower MI through the afternoon. The potential also exists for a few supercells to form ahead of the main bowing structures, posing a risk of hail and a few tornadoes as well. Behind the lead convection, another bowing MCS is moving across southwest WI. These storms are closer to the mid-level vorticity center and even stronger winds aloft. It is unclear how much destabilization can occur in the wake of the lead storms, but it seems plausible that this cluster will also pose a severe risk through much of the afternoon and evening, traversing a similar track as the southern lead bowing structure. ...UT to CO/KS/NE... A corridor of sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to result in scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms from parts of UT into northern CO and southern WY today. As the storms over the CO mountains spread eastward into the plains, they will encounter an increasingly moist and unstable air mass. A few of these storms may become severe by late afternoon/evening with damaging winds being the main concern. ...Southern AZ... Several 12z HREF members show a cluster of thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of southern AZ and spreading northwestward during the evening. If this scenario unfolds, strong wind gusts could affect the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest guidance. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible from the southern Cascades to the northern Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible early in the morning and again in the afternoon. However, lightning coverage will be low. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will traverse the periphery of a stationary upper ridge (centered over the Southern Rockies) and will overspread the northern Great Basin tomorrow/Thursday. By afternoon peak heating, downslope flow along the higher terrain will support 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from the California/Nevada border into the Snake River Plain. Coinciding these breezy surface conditions will be 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Monsoonal moisture associated with the upper ridge will support another day of scattered thunderstorms over the Rockies. Any strikes that can occur in patchy dry fuel beds will support a localized wildfire-spread threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Pumpkin vines in Knoxville were not growing or setting fruit as quickly as desired, due to drought. KNIA KRIS (Knoxville, Iowa), July 24, 2023

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 550 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/26/23 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC039-087-091-141-151-261940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELKHART LAGRANGE LA PORTE ST. JOSEPH STEUBEN MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-035-037-045-057-059-065-067-073-075- 077-081-085-105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-149-159-261940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLARE CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LAKE MASON MECOSTA MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN Read more

Missouri ranchers continued to sell cattle herds as drought limited grass growth. Some corn growers were cutting stunted corn early for cattle feed. Missouri ranks third in the country for beef production after Texas and Oklahoma. St. Louis Post-Dispatch Online (Mo.), July 25, 2023

The Army Corps of Engineers initiated a drought watch for the Mississippi River and was closely monitoring water levels as drought persisted. Flooding was an issue in April, but the lack of rain since then has the corps making sure that there was adequate water in the lock channels for ships to pass. KTTC-TV Rochester (Minn.), July 25, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southern New England southward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently in the upper Midwest will continue eastward into Thursday. This feature is forecast to reach New England by early afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge in the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. A surface low will move through the Northeast along with an associated warm front and a weak front/surface trough trailing into the Blue Ridge/Piedmont regions. Another surface boundary in the northern Plains into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Peninsula Michigan will sag southward. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Some ongoing activity is expected during the morning within the Northeast, likely near the Canadian border. Some lingering cloud cover can be expected perhaps into the early afternoon. Cloud cover will generally decrease with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic. Heating through broken cloud cover in New England should be sufficient to promote at least 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE given the moist airmass expected. Deep-layer shear with the shortwave trough will not be overly strong (30-40 kts), but should allow for some storm organization with a mix of discrete cells and multicells. Low-level wind fields will be moderately strong and promote a risk for damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Near the warm front, low-level shear will also favor some potential for low-level rotation and a threat for a couple tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, greater risk for damaging winds could be realized. Farther south into the Mid-Atlantic, weaker shear will be present. Stronger surface heating will still promote buoyancy perhaps in excess of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail would be the main threats with activity moving off of the Blue Ridge. ...Central High Plains into Upper Midwest... Deep-layer shear will be maximized near the surface boundary and weaken with southward extent across the broad region. Scattered storms appear most likely within the higher terrain of Wyoming into eastern Colorado. These storms would primarily pose a threat of strong/severe wind gusts. Strong heating within the Plains could allow for isolated strong/severe storms to develop. Forcing will be weak and capping will keep storm development uncertain. Guidance does show a weak surface low developing in Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Surface convergence may be great enough to allow a cluster of storms to develop. Shear in this region would be favorable for supercells initially. Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts would be possible. Weak low-level shear and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary, however, suggests upscale growth would occur relatively quickly and limit the duration of the large hail threat. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2023 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico
over the weekend to early next week. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Canyon Lake has dropped to 894.70 feet as of July 26, just two feet above the lowest water level ever recorded. The lake fell to 892.70 feet on Sept. 9, 2009, per the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Just one of nine boat ramps listed on the Comal County Engineer’s Office website was reported to be open. MySanAntonio (Texas), July 26, 2023

Spokane city officials urged residents to curb their lawn watering as the level of the Spokane River dropped and moderate drought took hold. For the first time, Level 2 drought response measures were put in place as the flow of the Spokane River fell below 1,000 cubic feet per second. Spokane Spokesman-Review (Wash.), July 25, 2023

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546... Valid 252216Z - 260015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong storms will spread across southern New England this evening. Gusty winds remain the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing ahead of progressive short-wave trough is advancing across the northern Middle Atlantic into southern New England early this evening. A small pocket of modest instability has yet to be overturned over eastern CT/RI into southeast MA. Over the next few hours, strong convection is expected to propagate east-southeast across southern New England with an attendant threat for gusty winds. Even so, convection should gradually weaken as it progresses toward coastal MA due to weaker buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 07/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41987258 42007127 41267136 41157283 41987258 Read more

MD 1706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into far western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252157Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. Convective coverage trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convective intensity across ND as a subtle mid-level trough overspreads the region, with at least one supercell taking shape in Cavalier County, ND. Though appreciable convective inhibition remains in place, strong surface heating of a moist low-level airmass (characterized by near 70 F surface dewpoints) supports 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis). At the moment, it is unclear if the upper support across the northern Plains will compensate for the substantial CINH to support a relatively widespread severe threat. On the other hand, given the instability, any storm that can mature and become sustained should support a severe wind and hail threat. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 45989853 48399840 48999806 49119739 48909647 48519616 47829605 47139604 46549596 46269604 46129634 45949714 45989853 Read more

WW 0546 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BWI TO 10 ENE TTN TO 30 NNE EWR TO 25 N POU. ..KERR..07/25/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-252140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-005-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-252140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 546 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 251610Z - 260000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, then track eastward across the watch area through the day. Damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Windsor Locks CT to 45 miles east southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind/hail-producing thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northern Plains and the Northeast into this evening. Isolated severe gusts are also possible over portions of the Interior West. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z Update. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to shift east/northeast across WW 546 the next few hours before moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the northern Plains in the next few hours. These storms will shift east/southeast through the evening into early tonight, producing hail and damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic into southern New England... A remnant MCV is currently over eastern PA. This feature is embedded within a larger-scale shortwave trough and associated 40 knot mid-level jet moving into the northeast states. Forcing ahead of these features is leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Strong heating across the region, coupled with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to moderate CAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through early evening. Storms will eventually build southward into eastern VA/MD as well. ...Northern Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over MT/WY. This feature will emerge into the Plains this afternoon, with large scale ascent overspreading the Dakotas. As this ascent reaches the western edge of deeper/richer moisture over central ND/SD, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. Initial storms will likely be supercells with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Storms should congeal upscale through the evening as they track east-southeastward into southwest MN/western IA with a continued risk of damaging winds. Other more isolated severe storms may develop southward into parts of NE and northeast CO, with a localized risk of damaging winds and hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NV...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN OR...AND NORTHEAST CA... ...Eastern OR/WA and the ID Panhandle... A shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move over portions of the Northern Great Basin into the Northwest late D2/Wed into early D3/Thur morning. Subtle forcing for ascent, and mid-level moisture will aid in isolated, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorm chances. Hi-res guidance shows some potential for lightning to interact with drier fuel beds across far eastern WA/OR into portions of the ID Panhandle. Should this occur, a few lightning ignitions are possible as fuels have dried over the preceding days. However, overall confidence in storm coverage is too low for IsoDryT highlights. Otherwise critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the northern great Basin. The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will crest the southern Rockies stationary ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies tomorrow/Wednesday. Strong forcing accompanying the passing troughs will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating in and to the south of the Harney Basin and also northern Montana, necessitating Elevated highlights. Surface winds may be stronger along the California/Nevada/Oregon border, prompting the addition of Critical highlights this outlook. Similar to previous days, monsoonal moisture associated with the stationary upper ridge may promote a few high-based thunderstorms with erratic wind gusts by afternoon, with fire starts possible wherever lightning can strike in dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251759
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some
locally heavy rains over portions of the adjacent land areas.
Development of this system is not expected while it continues to
move rapidly westward over the Caribbean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Bermuda. Significant development of this
system appears unlikely while it moves move west-northwestward
toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible later this week and into the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci