Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 3 47(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 105W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 10(61) X(61) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 7(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 12(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 ...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 the center of Celia was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from central Pennsylvania into Virginia, and westward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated downbursts and marginally severe hail may occur along the Kansas/Oklahoma border this evening, and isolated damaging downbursts will be possible through this evening across parts of southern/central California. ...Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A closed low off the southeast New England coast will drift westward, while a separate shortwave trough in the westerlies moves from the upper Great Lakes toward the lower Great Lakes. The Great Lakes shortwave trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front that will move southeastward into the upper OH Valley later this afternoon/evening. Farther east, a north-south front will extend from eastern VA into central PA, with strong surface heating expected west of this north-south front and in advance of the upper OH Valley cold front. There will also be some increase in low-level moisture during the day across the OH Valley into western/central PA, as well as along the stalled front into VA. The net result will be a corridor of moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE from 1500 J/kg along the Mid-Atlantic stalled front to nearly 3000 J/kg along the OH Valley cold front. Northwesterly to northerly midlevel flow on the west side of the closed low will favor southward-moving clusters by early afternoon from central PA into VA, along and west of the stalled north-south front (with a cooler marine layer to the east of the front). Slightly longer hodographs and a little larger low-level hodograph curvature (associated with weak warm advection) will be present along the north-south front, where there will be some potential for embedded/transient supercell structures. However, multicell clusters should be the dominant storm mode, with a primary threat for damaging outflow gusts as clusters spread southward into an environment with weaker buoyancy and steeper low-level lapse rates with southward extent. Multicell storm clusters are also expected along the cold front into the upper OH Valley by mid-late afternoon. Vertical shear will be weak over the upper OH Valley, but large CAPE/DCAPE will favor damaging outflow gusts with multicell clusters through the afternoon into late evening. ...Southern/central CA through this evening... A plume of low-midlevel moisture and weak ascent will continue to spread north-northwestward from southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley, around the eastern periphery of a midlevel low just off the central CA coast. Some convection is ongoing in the moisture plume, and pockets of surface heating/mixing in cloud breaks will contribute to deep inverted-v profiles. Buoyancy (MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) will be sufficient for substantial updrafts and precipitation loading to realize the downburst potential in the environment of steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg. Thus, isolated damaging gusts will be possible, mainly later today into this evening from the higher terrain in southern CA northward into the San Joaquin Valley. ...KS/OK border late this afternoon/evening... A surface cold front in KS, reinforced by outflow with convection overnight, will tend to stall near the OK/KS border by this afternoon. This area will be along the northwest periphery of the midlevel high over the southern Plains, and on the southern periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume emanating from NM. Though forcing for ascent will be weak, strong surface heating and deep mixing impinging on the front could support thunderstorm development late this afternoon into this evening. Despite some weak enhancement to the hodographs on the cool side of the boundary, vertical shear will largely remain weak, with multicell clusters the expected convective mode. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts, and perhaps marginally severe hail for a few hours this evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/22/2022 Read more

172
ABPZ20 KNHC 221135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Ten of 16 counties in the Brazos Valley enacted burn bans as area vegetation became drier. The 10 counties are Milam, Burleson, Lee, Austin, Waller, Grimes, Madison, Walker, Trinity and San Jacinto. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), June 22, 2022

 The Snow fire was reported on Thursday, June 16, 2022 at approximately 5:30 pm. It is burning west of the Snow Creek Ranger Cabin. Fireline is complete and will continue bucket work on the heavy burning

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area is introduced for portions of southern California. 12 UTC soundings from the region sampled very dry air within the lowest 3 km. This dry air is expected to remain in place over the next 24 hours as mid-level moisture improves via a monsoonal moisture surge from the south. Thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight (likely after 09 UTC) and spread from south to north towards central CA as the upper disturbance off the coast moves onshore. Morning ensemble guidance has a light QPF signal across this region during the 09-12 UTC time frame, and corresponding forecast soundings show adequate instability (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE) atop the dry low-level air mass. While PWAT values will be somewhat elevated, the potential for dry lightning strikes appears sufficiently high to introduce a risk area. Wind-driven fire weather concerns remain low. Localized elevated (to perhaps briefly critical) fire weather conditions are possible within the San Gabriel to San Bernardino mountains in southern CA, as well as across parts of northwest AZ. However, this activity will most likely remain fairly limited spatially and temporally. ..Moore.. 06/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will be present across a wide swath of the lower 48 today. A cutoff low off the California coast will aid in mid-level moisture return late in forecast period. The overall fire weather risk is expected to remain low as weak surface winds are expected across the areas with the driest fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 21 16:04:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 21 16:04:01 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jun 2022 14:35:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jun 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 211434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Deep convection has been increasing, but it remains confined to the west of the center of Celia due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the cyclone is still asymmetric, it does appear a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 35 kt based on that data. This makes Celia a tropical storm once again. Celia is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 10 kt, and it is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge that is centered over the south-central U.S. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next several days as the storm moves within the flow on the southwest side of the ridge. Despite the fairly straightforward steering pattern, there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance with the HWRF and UKMET models on the southern edge and the ECMWF model on the northern side. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Celia will likely strengthen at a slow pace during the next couple of days as the system remains in moderate to strong shear conditions. The overall environment looks best for Celia late this week and early this weekend, when the shear is expected to decrease and while SSTs beneath the system remain warm, and it will likely become a hurricane during that time. However, later in the weekend, the storm is expected to move over sub 26 C waters, which should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during the next 36-48 hours, but falls near the middle of the envelope beyond that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 11.6N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 734 FOPZ13 KNHC 211433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 23(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 18(55) 1(56) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 ...CELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 99.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 99.5 West. Celia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and Celia is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will likely increase along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...CELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 the center of Celia was located near 11.6, -99.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 99.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible from the upper Great Lakes to the central Plains late this afternoon/evening. ...Upper Great Lakes to the central Plains this evening... No changes to the previous outlook. A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains will move generally eastward toward the upper Great Lakes, around the northern periphery of a closed midlevel high over the mid MS Valley. There will be some suppression of midlevel heights across the Great Lakes, but the majority of the height falls and stronger midlevel flow will be displaced to the cool side of an associated surface cold front that will move southeastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This will leave weak forcing for ascent and weak vertical shear in the warm sector this afternoon. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 70s will be maintained immediately ahead of the cold front, where strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg) is expected with daytime heating beneath a residual plume of 7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Since forcing for ascent will be relatively shallow/weak along the cold front, convective initiation will rely on strong surface heating/mixing to eliminate convective inhibition, which is somewhat more probable from KS into northern MO. A few multicell clusters are expected along the front, with the strong buoyancy supporting a marginal hail threat, and steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg favoring isolated severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/21/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible from the upper Great Lakes to the central Plains late this afternoon/evening. ...Upper Great Lakes to the central Plains this evening... No changes to the previous outlook. A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains will move generally eastward toward the upper Great Lakes, around the northern periphery of a closed midlevel high over the mid MS Valley. There will be some suppression of midlevel heights across the Great Lakes, but the majority of the height falls and stronger midlevel flow will be displaced to the cool side of an associated surface cold front that will move southeastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This will leave weak forcing for ascent and weak vertical shear in the warm sector this afternoon. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 70s will be maintained immediately ahead of the cold front, where strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg) is expected with daytime heating beneath a residual plume of 7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Since forcing for ascent will be relatively shallow/weak along the cold front, convective initiation will rely on strong surface heating/mixing to eliminate convective inhibition, which is somewhat more probable from KS into northern MO. A few multicell clusters are expected along the front, with the strong buoyancy supporting a marginal hail threat, and steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg favoring isolated severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/21/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi