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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from southern British Columbia to off the central CA coast early Tuesday morning. A belt of enhanced, largely zonal westerly flow is anticipated east of this system, extending from the Great Basin through the OH Valley and Northeast. The shortwave is forecast to make gradual eastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from eastern MT across the Great Basin and into southern CA by early Wednesday. Modest upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS downstream of this system. At the surface, lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis likely over the central High Plains Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then expected to progress eastward across KS. A broad warm sector, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will exist from south TX into MO ahead of this low. Warm-air advection will persist across this warm sector throughout the day, with some low-level convergence possible along the warm front as well. However, mid-level temperatures are expected to remain warm, resulting in substantial convective inhibition and prohibiting thunderstorm development. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS, with no thunderstorms expected during the period. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from southern British Columbia to off the central CA coast early Tuesday morning. A belt of enhanced, largely zonal westerly flow is anticipated east of this system, extending from the Great Basin through the OH Valley and Northeast. The shortwave is forecast to make gradual eastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from eastern MT across the Great Basin and into southern CA by early Wednesday. Modest upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS downstream of this system. At the surface, lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis likely over the central High Plains Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then expected to progress eastward across KS. A broad warm sector, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will exist from south TX into MO ahead of this low. Warm-air advection will persist across this warm sector throughout the day, with some low-level convergence possible along the warm front as well. However, mid-level temperatures are expected to remain warm, resulting in substantial convective inhibition and prohibiting thunderstorm development. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS, with no thunderstorms expected during the period. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from southern British Columbia to off the central CA coast early Tuesday morning. A belt of enhanced, largely zonal westerly flow is anticipated east of this system, extending from the Great Basin through the OH Valley and Northeast. The shortwave is forecast to make gradual eastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from eastern MT across the Great Basin and into southern CA by early Wednesday. Modest upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS downstream of this system. At the surface, lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis likely over the central High Plains Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then expected to progress eastward across KS. A broad warm sector, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will exist from south TX into MO ahead of this low. Warm-air advection will persist across this warm sector throughout the day, with some low-level convergence possible along the warm front as well. However, mid-level temperatures are expected to remain warm, resulting in substantial convective inhibition and prohibiting thunderstorm development. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS, with no thunderstorms expected during the period. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from southern British Columbia to off the central CA coast early Tuesday morning. A belt of enhanced, largely zonal westerly flow is anticipated east of this system, extending from the Great Basin through the OH Valley and Northeast. The shortwave is forecast to make gradual eastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from eastern MT across the Great Basin and into southern CA by early Wednesday. Modest upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS downstream of this system. At the surface, lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains, with eventual cyclogenesis likely over the central High Plains Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then expected to progress eastward across KS. A broad warm sector, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will exist from south TX into MO ahead of this low. Warm-air advection will persist across this warm sector throughout the day, with some low-level convergence possible along the warm front as well. However, mid-level temperatures are expected to remain warm, resulting in substantial convective inhibition and prohibiting thunderstorm development. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS, with no thunderstorms expected during the period. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the CONUS Monday; although, lightning is expected with convection across a few areas, namely the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. Strong upper trough will advance inland along the WA/OR/northern CA Coast by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across northern CA into the Great Basin. Modest midlevel height falls will spread ahead of this feature and lapse rates will steepen north of the jet such that weak buoyancy will materialize from coastal portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. A few flashes of lightning may accompany weak convection north of the jet. Downstream, a pronounced, fast-moving short-wave trough will eject across WI into MI by late afternoon, then into the lower Great Lakes by the end of the period. Strong LLJ will evolve ahead of this feature and warm advection is expected to encourage elevated convection within a zone of large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500mb MUCAPE, more than adequate for lightning with this activity. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the CONUS Monday; although, lightning is expected with convection across a few areas, namely the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. Strong upper trough will advance inland along the WA/OR/northern CA Coast by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates across northern CA into the Great Basin. Modest midlevel height falls will spread ahead of this feature and lapse rates will steepen north of the jet such that weak buoyancy will materialize from coastal portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. A few flashes of lightning may accompany weak convection north of the jet. Downstream, a pronounced, fast-moving short-wave trough will eject across WI into MI by late afternoon, then into the lower Great Lakes by the end of the period. Strong LLJ will evolve ahead of this feature and warm advection is expected to encourage elevated convection within a zone of large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500mb MUCAPE, more than adequate for lightning with this activity. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/06/2023 Read more