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MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/Central/Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest/South-Central MO...Northeast AR Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220651Z - 221245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, will continue across much of central and eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Plateau for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a large area of precipitation from OK into the Ozark Plateau. This area of precipitation, which is a supported by moderate warm-air advection across the southern Plains, is gradually moving eastward/northeastward and is occurring within an area of largely sub-freezing surface temperatures. A more coherent area of precipitation is entering the Ozark Plateau vicinity, where light but steady precipitation should lead to freezing rain rates on the order of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour. This initial area of precipitation is followed by a more banded precipitation structure, which is ongoing over central OK now. Precipitation rates within these bands are likely equivalent to those within the more broad area of precipitation (i.e. around 0.01" to 0.03"), but higher rates are possible if deeper convection is realized within any of these bands. Lightning was recently observed in Cooke County TX, which is indicative of some deeper convective cores and higher precipitation rates. Temperatures across this region are expected to stay below freezing for the next several hours, with temperatures then warming above freezing around 10 to 12Z across south-central and southeast OK. Gradual warming is expected to then expand northeastward over time, ending the threat for freezing rain. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34309907 35519815 36339726 37409554 37489206 35889252 34139432 33769678 34309907 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more