Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, as a large-scale trough gradually develops. Across the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing along the southern fringes of the strong flow aloft will promote multiple days of dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (especially over wind-prone areas), these conditions appear too marginal for Critical probabilities given marginally receptive fuels across the region. Farther east, the strengthening downslope flow across the southern High Plains will favor warm/dry conditions west of a lee trough/dryline each afternoon. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, will yield dry/windy conditions across the region -- especially on Day 4/Tuesday from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. While fuels appear marginally receptive across the area, elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible. ...Southern California... An expansive surface high will develop over the Great Basin late in the forecast period. This will favor an offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across southern CA. This area will need to be monitored for an increase in fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, as a large-scale trough gradually develops. Across the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing along the southern fringes of the strong flow aloft will promote multiple days of dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (especially over wind-prone areas), these conditions appear too marginal for Critical probabilities given marginally receptive fuels across the region. Farther east, the strengthening downslope flow across the southern High Plains will favor warm/dry conditions west of a lee trough/dryline each afternoon. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, will yield dry/windy conditions across the region -- especially on Day 4/Tuesday from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. While fuels appear marginally receptive across the area, elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible. ...Southern California... An expansive surface high will develop over the Great Basin late in the forecast period. This will favor an offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across southern CA. This area will need to be monitored for an increase in fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, as a large-scale trough gradually develops. Across the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing along the southern fringes of the strong flow aloft will promote multiple days of dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (especially over wind-prone areas), these conditions appear too marginal for Critical probabilities given marginally receptive fuels across the region. Farther east, the strengthening downslope flow across the southern High Plains will favor warm/dry conditions west of a lee trough/dryline each afternoon. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, will yield dry/windy conditions across the region -- especially on Day 4/Tuesday from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. While fuels appear marginally receptive across the area, elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible. ...Southern California... An expansive surface high will develop over the Great Basin late in the forecast period. This will favor an offshore pressure gradient and dry/breezy conditions across southern CA. This area will need to be monitored for an increase in fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The only change with the 20z update is to remove the 10 percent general thunderstorm area across parts of northwest OR/far southwest WA. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible further south across southwest OR/northwest CA the next few hours, before diminishing by evening. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the forecast. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and through wind-prone areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO during the afternoon. Increasing westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into a belt of enhanced midlevel flow concurrent with a tightening surface pressure gradient. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, zonal flow will continue across the CONUS. The jet stream will strengthen across the western CONUS through the day. As this stronger mid-level flow overspreads the central High Plains, lee troughing is expected with a developing surface low across the northern Plains. Therefore, some breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to be mostly above 35 to 40 percent and fuels in the area are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida Sunday through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Mostly zonal upper-level flow will envelop much of the rest of the CONUS in the wake of the eastern trough, though a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft near the U.S./Canada border. A surface low and attendant cold front associated with this weak shortwave impulse will move over the northern Plains vicinity, shifting east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley through the period. However, meager boundary-layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Despite zonal flow, a strong mid/upper jet streak will move across northern CA into the Great Basin and central Rockies. This will aid in deep, moist onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast FL where a moist boundary-layer will persist through the afternoon. While the midlevels will be relatively warm, modest destabilization should occur, and coupled with increasing large-scale ascent as the upper trough approaches, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the southeast FL coast or just offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida Sunday through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Mostly zonal upper-level flow will envelop much of the rest of the CONUS in the wake of the eastern trough, though a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft near the U.S./Canada border. A surface low and attendant cold front associated with this weak shortwave impulse will move over the northern Plains vicinity, shifting east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley through the period. However, meager boundary-layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Despite zonal flow, a strong mid/upper jet streak will move across northern CA into the Great Basin and central Rockies. This will aid in deep, moist onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast FL where a moist boundary-layer will persist through the afternoon. While the midlevels will be relatively warm, modest destabilization should occur, and coupled with increasing large-scale ascent as the upper trough approaches, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the southeast FL coast or just offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida Sunday through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Mostly zonal upper-level flow will envelop much of the rest of the CONUS in the wake of the eastern trough, though a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft near the U.S./Canada border. A surface low and attendant cold front associated with this weak shortwave impulse will move over the northern Plains vicinity, shifting east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley through the period. However, meager boundary-layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Despite zonal flow, a strong mid/upper jet streak will move across northern CA into the Great Basin and central Rockies. This will aid in deep, moist onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast FL where a moist boundary-layer will persist through the afternoon. While the midlevels will be relatively warm, modest destabilization should occur, and coupled with increasing large-scale ascent as the upper trough approaches, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the southeast FL coast or just offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida Sunday through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Mostly zonal upper-level flow will envelop much of the rest of the CONUS in the wake of the eastern trough, though a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft near the U.S./Canada border. A surface low and attendant cold front associated with this weak shortwave impulse will move over the northern Plains vicinity, shifting east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley through the period. However, meager boundary-layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Despite zonal flow, a strong mid/upper jet streak will move across northern CA into the Great Basin and central Rockies. This will aid in deep, moist onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast FL where a moist boundary-layer will persist through the afternoon. While the midlevels will be relatively warm, modest destabilization should occur, and coupled with increasing large-scale ascent as the upper trough approaches, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the southeast FL coast or just offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida Sunday through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Mostly zonal upper-level flow will envelop much of the rest of the CONUS in the wake of the eastern trough, though a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft near the U.S./Canada border. A surface low and attendant cold front associated with this weak shortwave impulse will move over the northern Plains vicinity, shifting east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley through the period. However, meager boundary-layer moisture and little instability will preclude thunderstorm activity ahead of this cold front. Despite zonal flow, a strong mid/upper jet streak will move across northern CA into the Great Basin and central Rockies. This will aid in deep, moist onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible over far southeast FL where a moist boundary-layer will persist through the afternoon. While the midlevels will be relatively warm, modest destabilization should occur, and coupled with increasing large-scale ascent as the upper trough approaches, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the southeast FL coast or just offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2023 Read more