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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls will develop across the northwestern CONUS Saturday ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will approach the WA/OR Coast during the evening. Weak elevated convection may generate lightning ahead of the surface front within the warm-advection regime. Otherwise, as profiles cool and lapse rates steepen, weak buoyancy near the coast may prove adequate for a flash or two of lightning within post-frontal environment. Isolated thunderstorms may also be noted east of the Cascades in association with weak frontal convection. Overall, thunderstorm activity will prove quite sparse across this region Saturday. ...South Florida... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across the central Gulf Basin. This feature will encourage higher-PW air mass to advance a bit north into south FL. While the primary zone of low-level confluence will remain just offshore, moistening profiles and sustained weak warm advection suggest scattered convection should evolve along the cool side of the boundary. Forecast soundings for MIA are adequately buoyant for lightning production within the deeper updrafts, and large-scale support ahead of the short wave appears favorable for this scenario. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls will develop across the northwestern CONUS Saturday ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will approach the WA/OR Coast during the evening. Weak elevated convection may generate lightning ahead of the surface front within the warm-advection regime. Otherwise, as profiles cool and lapse rates steepen, weak buoyancy near the coast may prove adequate for a flash or two of lightning within post-frontal environment. Isolated thunderstorms may also be noted east of the Cascades in association with weak frontal convection. Overall, thunderstorm activity will prove quite sparse across this region Saturday. ...South Florida... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across the central Gulf Basin. This feature will encourage higher-PW air mass to advance a bit north into south FL. While the primary zone of low-level confluence will remain just offshore, moistening profiles and sustained weak warm advection suggest scattered convection should evolve along the cool side of the boundary. Forecast soundings for MIA are adequately buoyant for lightning production within the deeper updrafts, and large-scale support ahead of the short wave appears favorable for this scenario. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls will develop across the northwestern CONUS Saturday ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will approach the WA/OR Coast during the evening. Weak elevated convection may generate lightning ahead of the surface front within the warm-advection regime. Otherwise, as profiles cool and lapse rates steepen, weak buoyancy near the coast may prove adequate for a flash or two of lightning within post-frontal environment. Isolated thunderstorms may also be noted east of the Cascades in association with weak frontal convection. Overall, thunderstorm activity will prove quite sparse across this region Saturday. ...South Florida... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast across the central Gulf Basin. This feature will encourage higher-PW air mass to advance a bit north into south FL. While the primary zone of low-level confluence will remain just offshore, moistening profiles and sustained weak warm advection suggest scattered convection should evolve along the cool side of the boundary. Forecast soundings for MIA are adequately buoyant for lightning production within the deeper updrafts, and large-scale support ahead of the short wave appears favorable for this scenario. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of areas will experience isolated, very weak convection tonight. ...01z Update... No changes to previous forecast with only a couple of areas of very weak convection expected. One area where isolated thunderstorms may be noted is across the High Plains from southeast WY into central NE. Satellite imagery depicts a digging short-wave trough that will influence this region later this evening/overnight. 00z sounding from UNR exhibits steep lapse rates but only meager moisture. Lifting a near-surface-based parcel, it's weakly buoyant through the 500mb layer where temperatures are less than -20C. This may prove adequate for a few flashes of lightning with convection overnight. Across extreme south FL, PW values should gradually increase through the night ahead of a weak short-wave trough that will approach the peninsula by daybreak. Although lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and very moist profiles suggest some risk lighting within this weak warm-advection regime. ..Darrow.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of areas will experience isolated, very weak convection tonight. ...01z Update... No changes to previous forecast with only a couple of areas of very weak convection expected. One area where isolated thunderstorms may be noted is across the High Plains from southeast WY into central NE. Satellite imagery depicts a digging short-wave trough that will influence this region later this evening/overnight. 00z sounding from UNR exhibits steep lapse rates but only meager moisture. Lifting a near-surface-based parcel, it's weakly buoyant through the 500mb layer where temperatures are less than -20C. This may prove adequate for a few flashes of lightning with convection overnight. Across extreme south FL, PW values should gradually increase through the night ahead of a weak short-wave trough that will approach the peninsula by daybreak. Although lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and very moist profiles suggest some risk lighting within this weak warm-advection regime. ..Darrow.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of areas will experience isolated, very weak convection tonight. ...01z Update... No changes to previous forecast with only a couple of areas of very weak convection expected. One area where isolated thunderstorms may be noted is across the High Plains from southeast WY into central NE. Satellite imagery depicts a digging short-wave trough that will influence this region later this evening/overnight. 00z sounding from UNR exhibits steep lapse rates but only meager moisture. Lifting a near-surface-based parcel, it's weakly buoyant through the 500mb layer where temperatures are less than -20C. This may prove adequate for a few flashes of lightning with convection overnight. Across extreme south FL, PW values should gradually increase through the night ahead of a weak short-wave trough that will approach the peninsula by daybreak. Although lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and very moist profiles suggest some risk lighting within this weak warm-advection regime. ..Darrow.. 11/04/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 3 22:05:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 3 22:05:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday - Southwest into Southern Plains... Midlevel westerlies will strengthen across the western CONUS, favoring several days of dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a dry antecedent air mass is in place. For the Southwest, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft each afternoon will yield breezy/gusty surface winds amid lower-teens RH. While elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for critical conditions appears too localized for probabilities. For eastern NM into west TX, downslope-aided warming/drying and an enhanced pressure gradient west of a dryline/lee trough will favor 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds each afternoon. Widespread elevated conditions are expected, and locally critical conditions are possible -- especially over parts of eastern NM on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. Currently, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for probabilities, especially given marginal fuels. With that said, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed for parts of the area as fine fuels continue to dry out. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. Read more