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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more