Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more