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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Southern California - Day 3/Wednesday... A mid/upper-level ridge will build over the West Coast, favoring surface high pressure over parts of the Northwest/northern Great Basin. This pattern will result in a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA on Day 3/Wednesday. The dry offshore flow will lead to 10-15 percent RH by the afternoon hours over parts of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where 20+ mph sustained north-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected (especially over the typical wind-prone areas). These conditions could persist into Day 4/Thursday. Dry/breezy offshore flow may also support elevated conditions farther south into Orange and Riverside Counties, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Southern High Plains - Day 3/Wednesday... Dry/breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday afternoon ahead of a southward-advancing cold front. While a brief period of elevated to spotty critical conditions is possible, these conditions appear too brief for an appreciable fire-weather concern. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Southern California - Day 3/Wednesday... A mid/upper-level ridge will build over the West Coast, favoring surface high pressure over parts of the Northwest/northern Great Basin. This pattern will result in a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA on Day 3/Wednesday. The dry offshore flow will lead to 10-15 percent RH by the afternoon hours over parts of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where 20+ mph sustained north-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected (especially over the typical wind-prone areas). These conditions could persist into Day 4/Thursday. Dry/breezy offshore flow may also support elevated conditions farther south into Orange and Riverside Counties, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Southern High Plains - Day 3/Wednesday... Dry/breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday afternoon ahead of a southward-advancing cold front. While a brief period of elevated to spotty critical conditions is possible, these conditions appear too brief for an appreciable fire-weather concern. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Southern California - Day 3/Wednesday... A mid/upper-level ridge will build over the West Coast, favoring surface high pressure over parts of the Northwest/northern Great Basin. This pattern will result in a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA on Day 3/Wednesday. The dry offshore flow will lead to 10-15 percent RH by the afternoon hours over parts of southern Ventura and northwestern Los Angeles Counties, where 20+ mph sustained north-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected (especially over the typical wind-prone areas). These conditions could persist into Day 4/Thursday. Dry/breezy offshore flow may also support elevated conditions farther south into Orange and Riverside Counties, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Southern High Plains - Day 3/Wednesday... Dry/breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday afternoon ahead of a southward-advancing cold front. While a brief period of elevated to spotty critical conditions is possible, these conditions appear too brief for an appreciable fire-weather concern. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 6 22:05:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 6 22:05:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... A Critical area was added for portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. In addition, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southern CO along the I-25 corridor. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, dried, freeze-cured grasses are now supportive of carrying fires over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given the expectation for several hours of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For southern CO, high-resolution guidance has trended stronger with sustained surface winds over the I-25 corridor, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (especially through the gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... A Critical area was added for portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. In addition, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southern CO along the I-25 corridor. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, dried, freeze-cured grasses are now supportive of carrying fires over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given the expectation for several hours of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For southern CO, high-resolution guidance has trended stronger with sustained surface winds over the I-25 corridor, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (especially through the gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... A Critical area was added for portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. In addition, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southern CO along the I-25 corridor. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, dried, freeze-cured grasses are now supportive of carrying fires over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given the expectation for several hours of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For southern CO, high-resolution guidance has trended stronger with sustained surface winds over the I-25 corridor, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (especially through the gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... A Critical area was added for portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. In addition, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southern CO along the I-25 corridor. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, dried, freeze-cured grasses are now supportive of carrying fires over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given the expectation for several hours of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For southern CO, high-resolution guidance has trended stronger with sustained surface winds over the I-25 corridor, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (especially through the gap-flow areas). ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more