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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into south Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the central Rockies into southern CA early Thursday morning. Northern stream will likely feature a maturing mid-latitude cyclone over northern MN/far northwest Ontario, with a lead shortwave moving from southern Ontario through southern Quebec. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely progress northeastward across the St. Lawrence Valley, just to the southeast of its parent shortwave. Expansive cold front attendant to this low will stretch back southwestward in the TX Hill Country early Thursday, with gradual southeastward/eastward progression of this front anticipated along the full length of the front throughout the day. Some shallow convection is possible across the Upper OH Valley early Thursday morning. A lightning flash or two is possible, but its limited depth should keep overall coverage below 10%. Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely progress northeastward across TX as the cold front gradually shifts southward. This is expected to lead to the development of a weak low which will gradually move eastward along the front as it moves across the TX Hill Country and Coastal Plain. Despite pre-frontal dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, warm temperatures aloft and limited heating (due to abundant cloud cover) will keep buoyancy modest. As a result, warm sector thunderstorm development is unlikely. However, mid-level moistening and lift associated with the low-amplitude shortwave will likely support isolated elevated thunderstorms behind the front from south TX into the northern LA and central/southern AR. Highest storm coverage is anticipated of the Arklatex region. Another strong shortwave trough is expected to move across the Pacific Northwest, with the primary frontal band associated with this wave reaching the coast Thursday afternoon. Despite cold temperatures aloft, limited low-level moisture and mild surface temperatures will keep buoyancy very low. As such, convection within the frontal band is expected to remain too shallow for lightning. A few flashes are possible along the WA coast with the more cellular activity behind this band as large-scale ascent persists and mid-level temperatures continue to cool. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into south Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the central Rockies into southern CA early Thursday morning. Northern stream will likely feature a maturing mid-latitude cyclone over northern MN/far northwest Ontario, with a lead shortwave moving from southern Ontario through southern Quebec. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely progress northeastward across the St. Lawrence Valley, just to the southeast of its parent shortwave. Expansive cold front attendant to this low will stretch back southwestward in the TX Hill Country early Thursday, with gradual southeastward/eastward progression of this front anticipated along the full length of the front throughout the day. Some shallow convection is possible across the Upper OH Valley early Thursday morning. A lightning flash or two is possible, but its limited depth should keep overall coverage below 10%. Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely progress northeastward across TX as the cold front gradually shifts southward. This is expected to lead to the development of a weak low which will gradually move eastward along the front as it moves across the TX Hill Country and Coastal Plain. Despite pre-frontal dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, warm temperatures aloft and limited heating (due to abundant cloud cover) will keep buoyancy modest. As a result, warm sector thunderstorm development is unlikely. However, mid-level moistening and lift associated with the low-amplitude shortwave will likely support isolated elevated thunderstorms behind the front from south TX into the northern LA and central/southern AR. Highest storm coverage is anticipated of the Arklatex region. Another strong shortwave trough is expected to move across the Pacific Northwest, with the primary frontal band associated with this wave reaching the coast Thursday afternoon. Despite cold temperatures aloft, limited low-level moisture and mild surface temperatures will keep buoyancy very low. As such, convection within the frontal band is expected to remain too shallow for lightning. A few flashes are possible along the WA coast with the more cellular activity behind this band as large-scale ascent persists and mid-level temperatures continue to cool. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more