Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2268 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN NY...VT...WESTERN NH
Mesoscale Discussion 2268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Areas affected...northern NY...VT...western NH Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 090736Z - 091200Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05 to 0.15 inches per 3 hours are forecast through 12 UTC. Mixed precipitation type in the form of snow/sleet/freezing rain will also occur before a gradual warming of the profile favors sleet/freezing rain. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic the past few hours has shown a moderate to heavy precipitation shield over the Lake Ontario vicinity. This precipitation is mainly in response to zone of strong low-level warm-air advection/isentropic lift spreading northeast from the Lower Great Lakes into New England tonight. Surface temperatures are at or below freezing across the Adirondacks into VT where initial precipitation has been in form of snow/sleet/freezing rain across northern NY. As additional warming in the 850-700 mb layer occurs tonight (especially with south extent), precipitation will likely transition from snow to sleet to sleet/freezing rain during the 09-12 UTC period. Model QPF and current radar trends indicate appreciable freezing rain rates (0.05 to 0.15 inches per 3 hours) may occur in areas where cold air in the low levels is slow to modify and where longer duration of freezing rain occurs. ..Smith.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43987576 44617441 44547259 44307200 43917147 43507133 43127160 42947365 43167574 43517599 43987576 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more