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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more