Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 8 22:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 8 22:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the surface. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the surface. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the surface. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added for portions of southeastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting several hours of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH -- especially over wind-prone areas. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours, as diurnal heating aids in boundary-layer drying. Given sufficiently dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added for portions of southeastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting several hours of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH -- especially over wind-prone areas. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours, as diurnal heating aids in boundary-layer drying. Given sufficiently dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added for portions of southeastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting several hours of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH -- especially over wind-prone areas. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours, as diurnal heating aids in boundary-layer drying. Given sufficiently dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added for portions of southeastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting several hours of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH -- especially over wind-prone areas. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours, as diurnal heating aids in boundary-layer drying. Given sufficiently dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more